Australia's Political Landscape Shifts as One Nation Surges

Multiple national polls between 2025 and 2026 show One Nation's primary vote rising from 6.4% to between 22% and 31%, surpassing both Labor and the Coalition in some surveys for the first time.

The political landscape in Australia is undergoing a significant transformation as Pauline Hanson's One Nation party experiences a sustained surge in support, reshaping electoral dynamics across state and federal levels. This rise has been accompanied by electoral breakthroughs at the state level, internal party controversies, shifts in major party strategies, and ongoing debates over immigration, multiculturalism, and economic policy.

Electoral Breakthroughs and Polling Surge

South Australian State Election

In the March 2026 South Australian state election, One Nation secured 22.9% of the primary vote and four lower house seats, coming second behind the Labor Party. Premier Peter Malinauskas' Labor government was re-elected with a projected 33 seats out of 47.

The Liberal Party's primary vote fell to approximately 19%, a decrease of nearly 17% from four years prior, with analysts attributing much of this loss to One Nation. The Liberal Party's decision to preference One Nation over Labor in its how-to-vote cards was cited by analysts as a factor contributing to One Nation's seat victories.

Former federal Liberal senator Cory Bernardi, who joined One Nation in February 2026, was projected to win a seat in the upper house. One Nation candidates David Paton and Robert Roylance were projected to win the lower house seats of Ngadjuri and Hammond respectively, with the party leading in the seats of MacKillop and Narungga.

Farrer Federal By-Election

One Nation candidate David Farley won the federal by-election in Farrer on May 9, 2026—the party's first victory in a House of Representatives seat.

The seat had been held by the Liberal Party or its predecessors since its creation in 1949. Farley secured 39.5% of the primary vote, while the combined Liberal and National candidates received approximately 20%. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Liberal MP Sussan Ley. The Coalition had directed preferences to One Nation ahead of independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe.

National Polling Data

Multiple polls conducted between mid-2025 and mid-2026 have recorded One Nation's primary vote in the range of 22% to 31%:

• A Guardian Essential poll of 1,067 respondents found One Nation at 25%, ahead of the Coalition's 24% and behind Labor's 30%.
• A Newspoll in June 2026 showed One Nation at 31%, Labor at 30%, and the Coalition at 18%.
• A Redbridge Group/Accent Research poll published in the Australian Financial Review showed One Nation at 31%, Labor at 28%, and the Coalition at 20%—the first major survey to place One Nation ahead of Labor.
• The Resolve Political Monitor for April showed One Nation's primary vote at 22% nationally, with state-level data in Victoria indicating One Nation at 24%, and the Coalition and Labor both at 26%.

Analysis of 12 months of Resolve Political Monitor data (May 2025 to May 2026) found One Nation's support increased across all demographic groups, including among women (rising from 6% to 24%), men (7% to 22%), voters aged 18-34 (4% to 15%), and voters with university degrees (2% to 15%).

The ANU's March 2026 poll of 3,662 adults indicated that One Nation's support reflects a "durable configuration" combining low hope, high financial stress, skepticism about government capacity, and populist orientation.

Victorian State Election Context

Polls ahead of the November 2026 Victorian state election show One Nation receiving between 21% and 28% of the primary vote. A Resolve Political Monitor survey found One Nation at 24%, with Labor and the Coalition each at 26%. In a second survey wave, One Nation's support reached 28%, surpassing both major parties. One Nation currently holds one seat in Victoria's Legislative Council.

Internal Party Matters

Employment and Dismissal of Sean Black

Sean Black, a former One Nation campaign director who was convicted of rape in 2018 and served a prison sentence, was dismissed from his position at the party's Brisbane headquarters in April 2026.

Party leader Pauline Hanson announced the dismissal, stating she does not condone the behavior but noted Black had served his sentence.

One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce, who was the MC at Black's wedding in 2010, stated that individuals who have served prison sentences deserve opportunities for redemption.

Two former One Nation candidates, Robert Stuckey and Leigh Burns, subsequently stated that they had raised concerns with party leadership about Black's employment in early 2025. Both said they left the party after their concerns were not addressed to their satisfaction. One Nation declined to respond to written questions about these allegations.

Incident at Media Event

On May 8, 2026, One Nation chief of staff James Ashby ejected a two-person ABC news crew from a media event in Albury, New South Wales. Video footage showed Hanson asking Ashby, "Why, if they're local ABC? Rural and regional?" Ashby responded, "Because they're reporting back to ABC Canberra." Hanson replied, "They shouldn't have gone."

Fundraising

One Nation launched a "Fire the Liar" fundraising campaign in June 2026, which the party reported raised over $2 million in two days and nearly $3 million by the end of the week. The party released an audit by independent contractor Daryl Monnink, who found that payments were verified and the progress bar was accurate.

Labor figures, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Labor Party President Wayne Swan, questioned the legitimacy of the fundraising. Donation details are scheduled to be published by the Australian Electoral Commission by February 1, 2027.

Leadership Candidate Vetting

Pauline Hanson stated in June 2026 that the party had introduced a rigorous vetting process for candidates and noted that 1,500 people had applied for candidacy for the next federal election. She also stated that One Nation had shut down four local branches due to concerns of infiltration by extremists.

Major Party Responses and Strategies

Labor Party

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated that voter frustration influenced government decisions, including breaking a promise on negative gearing and capital gains tax. He described One Nation's policies as lacking substance and stated the party "do not represent working people."

Labor's internal strategy involves researching voting records and identifying Labor supporters considering switching to One Nation, with emphasis on highlighting One Nation's voting record on workers' rights issues.

Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek stated One Nation has "voted against things that would make life easier for Australians" at every opportunity.

Coalition

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor stated that there is "no plan to carve up seats" with One Nation for the next federal election, following a proposal by Liberal frontbencher Tony Pasin that the two parties cooperate to avoid competing against each other in certain seats. Senior Liberal MPs, including James Paterson, publicly rejected the proposal. Paterson described One Nation as a "high-risk potential dance partner" due to its policies and candidate vetting.

Liberal Party president Tony Abbott stated he supports preference deals with One Nation, saying "as a general rule, it makes sense for parties of the right to preference each other just as parties of the left have always done." This position has drawn internal criticism from moderate Liberal MPs.

In a Guardian Essential poll, 23% of respondents who voted for the Coalition in 2025 stated they would now support One Nation, and 8% of former Labor voters reported a similar shift.

Policy Positions and Key Statements

Immigration

One Nation proposes capping annual visas at 130,000, implementing an eight-year waiting period for citizenship and welfare access, deporting visa overstayers, and refusing entry to migrants from nations described as fostering extremist ideologies. Pauline Hanson stated her policy is "not anti-immigration" but supports "controlled migration," citing housing affordability concerns.

Multiculturalism

In her first National Press Club address on June 17, 2026, Pauline Hanson stated that Australia "must be monocultural" and cannot be a multicultural society, while acknowledging the country is multiracial.

She described multiculturalism as a "failed policy" that has caused Australia to "lose its identity." Opposition Leader Angus Taylor initially declined to directly state whether the Coalition supports multiculturalism, later clarifying he supports "a version of multiculturalism." Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume stated Australia is "already a multicultural society."

Economic and Workplace Policy

One Nation's newly appointed treasury spokesman Barnaby Joyce stated the party is prepared to reduce worker entitlements to support small businesses. Hanson questioned paid parental leave funding, later clarifying she supports government-funded leave but opposes requiring businesses to fund it. Hanson also called for changes to industrial relations laws to make it easier for employers to terminate staff.

Defence

Hanson proposed increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP. Defence economist Marcus Hellyer estimated this would total approximately $692 billion over four forward estimates, up from $277 billion under current policy, and stated such an increase would require tax increases or cuts to other portfolios.

Abortion

Hanson proposed banning abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy. In June 2026, South Australia's Legislative Council passed a bill restricting late-term abortion from 25 weeks onward, which was subsequently defeated in the House of Assembly. The bill had support from One Nation MPs in the upper house. In New South Wales, a bill to ban sex-selective abortions was introduced by Libertarian MP John Ruddick and supported by Hanson and Joyce at a rally.

Analysis and Context

Political analysts have described One Nation's rise as reflecting a durable shift in voter sentiment rather than a temporary protest.

The ANUpoll found that support correlates with low hope, high financial stress, and skepticism about government capacity. Resolve founder Jim Reed stated that One Nation's gains have spread from rural areas to suburbs and Labor's traditional base, describing it as "a wave of change" rather than simply right-wing fragmentation.

Election analyst Ben Raue projected that One Nation could potentially grow its Senate representation from four to 16 seats at the next federal election based on current polling, while the Coalition would drop from 27 to 18 seats. Raue also stated that while the right is performing slightly better overall than in 2025, it is not a "right-wing landslide" and the Senate would remain progressive.