One Nation's Surge: A New Force in Australian Politics
One Nation, an Australian political party, has released a comprehensive policy platform across various sectors, coinciding with a significant increase in its national poll numbers. Some surveys indicate the party's primary vote has risen to levels comparable to or exceeding the Coalition. Led by Pauline Hanson, and with the recent addition of Barnaby Joyce, the party has articulated an ambition to become a viable alternative government, despite acknowledging electoral challenges.
Rising Electoral Support: One Nation's Surge
Recent national polls indicate a substantial increase in support for One Nation, with primary vote percentages ranging from 18% to 27% across various surveys, up from 6.4% in the 2025 federal election. This surge has led to One Nation polling ahead of the Coalition in some instances, marking a significant shift in the Australian political landscape.
Shifting Demographics and Voter Motivations
Analysis suggests that up to one in five Australians are now considering voting for One Nation. Voter shifts are reportedly occurring from both the Coalition (23% of 2025 Coalition voters) and, to a lesser extent, the Labor Party (8% of former Labor voters).
One Nation's support base is concentrated outside capital cities, among non-university educated individuals with middle-to-low incomes. Notably, some polls indicate the party is polling higher than the Coalition among female voters (23% to 21%) and among 35-54 year-olds (26% to 19%).
Factors contributing to this increased support include reported financial stress, disillusionment with established parties, cost of living pressures, energy supply concerns, and perceived over-regulation. Experts have noted parallels with broader populist movements globally, driven by perceived failures of mainstream parties and cultural issues.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese commented on rising right-wing populism, while former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce, now with One Nation, described Albanese's comments as a "defense mechanism."
One Nation's Comprehensive Policy Platform
One Nation's policy platform addresses key areas across various sectors.
Immigration
The party proposes a significant reduction in migrant numbers, aiming to cap visas at 130,000 annually. Policies include reintroducing temporary protection visas, refusing entry to individuals from nations deemed to foster extremist ideologies incompatible with Australian values, and deporting visa overstayers or illegal workers. One Nation also advocates for an eight-year waiting period for citizenship and welfare benefits and withdrawal from the UN Refugee Convention.
Bianca Colecchia, the Victorian state secretary for One Nation, stated that multiculturalism is a "failed concept" and advocated for limiting migrants from "non-culturally cohesive countries."
In response, Liberal NSW Senator Maria Kovacic stated that Australia was built by diverse cultures, attributing housing issues to policy failure rather than migration. Multicultural Affairs Minister Anne Aly described One Nation's message as "un-Australian." According to the 2021 Australian Bureau of Statistics census, 27.6% of the population was born overseas. A recent survey indicated that 35% of voters supported One Nation's migration policies.
Housing
One Nation links housing affordability to immigration levels. Proposals include reducing foreign arrivals, banning foreign ownership of property, and introducing a five-year GST moratorium on building materials for some homes.
Economist Saul Eslake suggests that a ban on foreign property ownership would have minimal impact due to the small percentage of foreign buyers.
Climate Change, Environment, and Energy
The party attributes rising energy costs to the renewable energy transition and net-zero targets. One Nation advocates for the continued use of coal and expansion of gas. Specific proposals include withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, repealing climate-related laws, abolishing the renewable energy target, abolishing the government department of climate change, and banning clean energy installations. The party questions established climate change science.
The Australian Energy Market Regulator's analysis indicates renewables are the cheapest energy source, and maintaining aging coal generators risks higher prices.
Government Administration and Spending
One Nation proposes reducing government spending and reorganizing agencies. Policies include abolishing the National Indigenous Australians Agency, reviewing the housing and education departments, abolishing the Therapeutic Goods Administration, and reviewing pandemic-approved medications on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. The party also proposes withdrawing from the United Nations, the Paris Agreement, and the World Health Organization, as well as reducing foreign aid spending to lower federal debt.
Education
The party criticizes state education, citing a perceived reduction in basic proficiency benchmarks and a focus on social policy.
Barnaby Joyce stated a belief that education should concentrate on "writing, reading and arithmetic."
While states set curricula, a review was agreed upon in October to improve mathematics teaching in early primary years. The Victorian platform also proposes promoting Australian values in schools.
Health
To address healthcare access in regional areas, One Nation proposes boosting rural medical staff by introducing three-year contracts for newly qualified professionals, with student loans paid off in return. Existing programs already offer student debt reduction for doctors working in remote areas.
Tax
One Nation seeks to simplify income tax settings and reduce the corporate tax rate to attract investment. Targeting multinational corporations for tax payment is also a priority.
Economist Saul Eslake questioned the funding for corporate tax cuts, noting they could lead to higher taxes on dividends for Australian shareholders and superannuation funds, primarily benefiting foreign entities.
Trade
Pauline Hanson has previously supported tariffs to protect Australian industries. Barnaby Joyce has expressed reservations about imposing duties on imported goods, citing concerns about retaliatory tariffs from larger economies.
Party Leadership, Growth, and Support
Pauline Hanson leads the One Nation party. Former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce joined the party in December, citing cost of living pressures and issues within the Coalition. James Ashby serves as the party's chief-of-staff. One Nation reports a nearly 600% increase in membership since the last federal election and states it has established branches in all 150 federal electorates. The party is reportedly supported by figures such as mining magnate Gina Rinehart and other business leaders.
Electoral Strategy and Hurdles Ahead
One Nation's immediate electoral strategy focuses on gaining ground in upcoming state elections in South Australia and Victoria, ahead of the 2028 federal vote.
State Election Focus
In South Australia, Hanson and Cory Bernardi launched a campaign aiming to secure one or two upper house positions in the March election. In Victoria, the party plans to field candidates in every electoral seat and potentially secure the balance of power in the upper house, with a policy platform focusing on crime, energy, promoting Australian values in schools, and repealing Victoria’s treaty with its First Peoples. Reforms to "group ticket voting" in Victoria could significantly impact the party's electoral opportunities there.
Federal Ambitions and Preferential Voting Challenges
Political analysts acknowledge that while One Nation's sustained national support above 20% could place its candidates in contention for several lower house seats, the party historically struggles to translate high primary votes into numerous lower house victories due to preferential voting systems. Potential federal target seats include LNP-held electorates in Queensland (Wright, Flynn, Capricornia, Hinkler, Wide Bay, Dawson) and Labor-held seats in Queensland (Blair) and New South Wales (Hunter, Paterson).
The 2017 Queensland state election, where the party secured only one seat despite 13% of the vote, is cited as a precedent for the challenges minor parties face.
Scrutiny and Recent Controversies
Undeclared Interests and Ethical Questions
Senator Pauline Hanson has been reported for not declaring director roles or shareholdings in three companies, including A Pauline Production Pty Ltd and Small Batch Brewing Pty Ltd. A Pauline Production Pty Ltd holds shares in A Super Progressive Movie Pty Ltd, which is tied to a satirical film slated to premiere on Australia Day, with proceeds intended to support One Nation's 2028 federal election campaign. Two of the companies involve James Ashby, and others are run or co-owned by Alexander Jones, who pleaded guilty to attempted electoral fraud in 2023.
A spokesman for Senator Hanson stated the companies are not currently trading and do not pose conflicts of interest, adding that her office is seeking confirmation from the Senate tabling office to update her record if required. Parliamentary regulations stipulate that a senator who knowingly fails to declare interests can be found guilty of a serious contempt of the Senate.
Parliamentary Conduct and Public Incidents
Additionally, Senator Hanson received a temporary suspension from the Senate in November after being censured for wearing a burqa in the chamber as part of a campaign to ban the garment. During a press conference in South Australia, supporters reportedly reacted with verbal protests and a threatening statement toward a reporter questioning Hanson about undeclared flights on Gina Rinehart's private jet.