Hurricane Melissa, the 13th hurricane of the current Atlantic season, is strengthening as it moves towards Jamaica, with forecasts predicting it will reach category five before weakening to a category four upon landfall. The storm has already affected Haiti and the Dominican Republic, causing two fatalities in Haiti due to landslides. Warnings for severe rainfall, storm surges, and high winds are in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba, with residents advised to seek shelter and complete preparations urgently.
Current Status and Forecast
As of 06:00 GMT, Hurricane Melissa had winds of up to 120 mph (195 km/h) and was turning north-west in the Caribbean. The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Melissa to make landfall in Jamaica by Tuesday.
The hurricane is forecast to become a category five storm before reaching Jamaica. While it is then predicted to weaken to a category four prior to landfall, the NHC stated there would be "very little practical difference in the overall impacts." Melissa is expected to maintain at least category four intensity when it hits the island.
Following its passage over Jamaica, Melissa is forecast to move over Cuba by Wednesday, at which point it is predicted to weaken to a category three storm. It will then proceed through the Antillas Mayores and into the Atlantic.
Expected Impacts
Melissa is anticipated to bring up to 30 inches (76cm) of rain and sea level surges as high as 13ft (4m) above ground. Tropical storm-strength winds and rain are expected to begin well before the hurricane's center passes over central Jamaica, potentially affecting the capital, Kingston.
The meteorological agency has warned that a multi-day period of strong winds and heavy rainfall is expected, which will lead to flash flooding and numerous landslides. Warnings include the potential for power cuts and damage to infrastructure. Residents in affected areas have been told to "seek shelter now."
Affected Regions and Preparations
Warnings are in effect for parts of Haiti, including its capital Port-au-Prince, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba, where Melissa is anticipated to bring similar effects by the middle of next week.
Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness addressed residents, stating the importance of preparedness. Residents have been advised to secure homes with sandbags and wooden boards, and to stock up on essentials. Preparations across the island are urged to be completed promptly.
Past Impacts and Fatalities
The hurricane has already caused landslides in Haiti, resulting in two fatalities, as reported by the nation's Civil Protection agency.
Scientific Context
Hurricane Melissa is the 13th hurricane of the current Atlantic season, which typically concludes in November.
Scientists state that while linking individual weather events to climate change is complex, climate change is contributing to more frequent and severe weather phenomena. Warmer oceans are noted to increase moisture in the atmosphere, which can fuel hurricane formation.
Ahead of this year's Atlantic hurricane season, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had predicted above-normal activity, attributing this to warmer seas and potentially stronger monsoon activity in West Africa, an area where Atlantic storms frequently originate.