Australian Political Polling
A national Australian Morgan poll, conducted January 12–18 with a sample of 1,630, indicated Labor holding a 53.5–46.5 lead by respondent preferences, representing a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the preceding poll (January 5–11).
Primary votes showed Labor at 28.5% (down 1.5), the Coalition at 24% (down 6.5), One Nation at 21% (up six), the Greens steady at 13.5%, and all Others at 13% (up two). Based on 2025 election preference flows, Labor maintained a 53–47 lead, a one-point gain for the party.
It is suggested that the reported six-point surge for One Nation in one week is likely an outlier, with the previous poll potentially being pro-Coalition. The Resolve poll currently shows the Coalition with a ten-point lead over One Nation, while other recent polls range from a one-point lead for One Nation (Newspoll) to a four-point Coalition lead (Fox & Hedgehog).
Morgan also conducted a special SMS poll on Australia Day, January 14–16, with a sample of 1,311. Results indicated 72–28 support for January 26 being known as “Australia Day” rather than “Invasion Day” (compared to 68.5–31.5 two years prior). Additionally, 60.5–39.5 of respondents believed Australia Day should not be moved from January 26 (compared to 58.5–41.5 previously).
Further results from the national Resolve poll showed 61-10 support for a royal commission following the Bondi incident (an increase from 48–17 in late December). On social cohesion, 37–35 respondents viewed it as good rather than poor (compared to 37–30 in late December).
Regarding gun laws, 66% desired them to be toughened (a ten-point decrease since late December), 21% preferred them to remain unchanged (an eleven-point increase), and 7% wished for them to be relaxed (a one-point increase). Opposition to stricter gun laws increased among right-wing voters.
The New South Wales (NSW) Resolve poll, based on a January sample of 550, reported that 49–19 respondents considered Labor Premier Chris Minns and the state government's response to the Bondi incident strong. Furthermore, 67–16 supported the state government's gun reforms.
US Political Landscape
One year into his second four-year term (commencing January 20, 2025), US President Donald Trump's net approval rating, according to Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, stands at -13.0, with 55.0% disapproving and 42.0% approving.
Trump's net approval had been positive at the start of his term but became negative last March and has remained in negative double digits since late October, reaching a low of -15.0 in November.
Compared to past presidents at the same point in their presidencies, Trump’s net approval is only ahead of his own first term, with Joe Biden being the next lowest at -12.0 net approval.
On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval ratings are: -9.5 on immigration, -15.6 on trade, -15.9 on the economy, and -25.2 on inflation. Recently, Trump’s net approval on immigration has decreased, while his approval on the other three issues has shown an increase.
The decline in Trump’s immigration ratings may be attributed to the fatal shooting of Renee Good by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent on January 7. Conversely, his improved ratings on other issues could be linked to the continued strong performance of the stock market.
The benchmark S&P 500 stock market index increased by 7.8% in the last six months, reaching a new peak on January 12. However, it experienced a 2.1% decline in a recent session following Trump’s threats of tariffs concerning Greenland. Trump’s ratings are likely to remain stable unless significant deterioration occurs in the stock market or the broader US economy.
In a recent Ipsos poll for Reuters, 47–17 Americans disapproved of US efforts to acquire Greenland, and 71–4 believed that using military force to take Greenland was not advisable.
Looking ahead to the midterm elections in November, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election. Fiftyplusone’s aggregate of the national generic ballot indicates Democrats leading Republicans by 43.6–39.8.
Based on a national popular vote lead of 3.8 points (as suggested by current polls), Democrats are highly likely to gain control of the House but are not expected to gain control of the Senate. This is primarily due to the Senate’s two senators per state rule, which often favors low-population, rural states.