Pancreatic cancer, a disease affecting an organ located behind the stomach, is facing a rising incidence globally and in Australia, where it is projected to become the second most lethal cancer by 2030. Research indicates a significant increase in cases among younger populations. Despite a low five-year survival rate of approximately 13 percent, ongoing research into risk factors, the development of new detection guidelines for general practitioners, and emerging treatments offer potential avenues for improvement and earlier diagnosis.
A Notable Loss: Rob Hirst
Midnight Oil founding member and drummer Rob Hirst died at the age of 70 after battling pancreatic cancer since 2023. His family announced his passing on Tuesday and requested donations to Pankind, Pancreatic Cancer Australia, or Support Act in his honor. Prior to his death, Hirst had discussed how the illness prevented him from playing his drum kit. He had previously auctioned his 1979 Ludwig drum kit, used on the band's second album, raising tens of thousands of dollars for charity.
Rising Incidence and Shifting Demographics
A Worrying Trend Among Younger Australians
Research from Flinders University in 2024 indicates a 200 percent increase in pancreatic cancer cases among Australians aged 15-49 over 24 years. This trend is consistent with a global rise in the disease among younger individuals in affluent countries. The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare estimated approximately 4,825 people would be diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in 2025, with the average diagnosis age being 72. Approximately one in 70 people are projected to be diagnosed with the disease by age 85.
Understanding the Risk Factors
Professor Savio Barreto from Flinders University identified several risk factors for early-onset pancreatic cancer in Australia and Oceania. Globally, smoking is a major risk factor. In Australia and Oceania, raised blood glucose and obesity are significant contributors. Other identified risk factors include alcohol consumption, family history (including BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes), age (with most cases occurring after 60), and long-term exposure to certain workplace chemicals.
The Link to Type 2 Diabetes
Type 2 diabetes, another condition affecting the pancreas, is Australia's fastest-growing chronic condition, increasingly affecting younger populations, according to Diabetes Australia. Diagnoses among individuals aged 21-39 have risen by 44 percent in the last decade, and by 17 percent for those under 20. While raised blood sugar alone does not directly increase the chances of pancreatic cancer, insulin resistance, poorly controlled blood sugar, and pancreatic inflammation associated with long-standing diabetes are linked to an increased risk. UK research from the previous year indicated that diabetes can nearly double this risk.
Challenges in Early Detection
Pancreatic cancer is challenging to detect early because the pancreas is located deep within the body and cannot be felt externally. Its symptoms are often non-specific and can be mistaken for minor ailments, leading to late diagnosis. Diagnosis often requires invasive tests such as scans or biopsies. Early-stage symptoms are uncommon and typically appear only after the cancer has spread or grown large enough to impact other organs.
Recognizing the Symptoms
Common symptoms of pancreatic cancer include:
- Persistent upper abdominal pain (which may be below the ribs or breastbone)
- Unexplained weight loss
- Loss of appetite
- Nausea and vomiting
- Changes in bowel movements (such as diarrhea, constipation, or a sensation of incomplete emptying)
Less common symptoms include severe back pain and the development of diabetes, which affects 10 to 20 percent of patients. Other impacts can include damage to the pancreas or liver, potentially leading to jaundice (yellowing of the skin or eyes) if the liver malfunctions or the bile duct becomes blocked. As the disease progresses, cachexia, a cancer-induced wasting syndrome causing loss of body mass and muscle, can develop.
Survival Rates and Prognosis
Pancreatic cancer affects nearly 5000 Australians annually. It is estimated to be the eighth most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia and was the third most common cause of cancer-related death in 2025.
The average five-year survival rate for pancreatic cancer is approximately 13 percent, with only about one-third of patients surviving one year after diagnosis.
The low survival rate is largely attributed to most diagnoses occurring at stage three or four, at which point surgical removal of the primary tumor is often impossible. Stage four pancreatic cancer, also known as metastatic cancer, signifies that the cancer has spread to other organs. Treatment at this stage is often palliative, focusing on controlling the disease and alleviating pain, and is associated with a very poor survival rate.
Emerging Treatments and Research
Emerging research focuses on targeted therapies, designed to inhibit cancer cell growth and spread, and immunotherapies, which aim to stimulate the body's immune system to combat the cancer. These advancements offer potential for improving survival rates, though they require several years for clinical trials.
New Guidelines for General Practitioners
New recommendations for general practitioners, developed by Australian clinicians and scientists, are set to be promoted. These guidelines are designed to assist doctors in determining which patients require further investigation for pancreatic cancer based on combinations of symptoms and risk factors.
Professor Rachel Neale from the QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute noted that while abdominal pain is common, its combination with risk factors such as smoking, heavy drinking, or obesity may warrant pancreatic investigation.
Patient Advocacy: A Voice for Change
Mona Thind, a 55-year-old patient, had her pancreatic tumor detected and removed early, prior to it spreading. She is actively involved in raising awareness, sharing information cards on symptoms, and established a Facebook support group, "Battlers Down Under – Pancreatic Cancer Support." Thind also participates in fundraising events for Pankind, an organization dedicated to improving survival rates.