Tri-State Area Braces for Major Winter Storm: Heavy Snow, Ice, and Travel Disruptions Expected
A significant winter storm is forecast to impact the Tri-State area, including New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, beginning Sunday morning and continuing into Monday. The storm is expected to bring heavy snow, ice, and subfreezing temperatures, with potential for widespread travel disruptions. Governors in all three states have declared a state of emergency, and emergency services are preparing for the event.
General Forecast and Affected Regions
The winter storm is projected to affect dozens of states from the Southwest through the Northeast, with the Tri-State area positioned on the northern side of a large coastal low. New York City, Long Island, and parts of southern Connecticut are specifically noted. The region faces a probability of receiving 6 to 12 inches of snow, with some areas potentially exceeding 12 inches.
Storm Timeline
Winter storm warnings for the New York City area are effective from 3 a.m. Sunday until 6 p.m. Monday.
- Sunday 3 a.m. - 7 a.m.: Snow is anticipated to begin lightly and increase to moderate intensity.
- Sunday 7 a.m. - 2 p.m.: Snowfall is expected to intensify, with rates potentially reaching 1 to 2 inches per hour.
- Sunday 2 p.m. - 10 p.m.: Warmer air may introduce a mix of freezing rain and sleet for New York City and areas to its south and east. Coastal regions could experience plain rain. North and west of the city, heavy snow is expected to continue. Winds are forecast to increase to gusts of 25-35 mph, with conditions that could resemble near-blizzard severity. Ice accretion of up to 0.25 inches is possible.
- Sunday 10 p.m. - Monday 7 a.m.: Precipitation is expected to transition back to snow across all areas as the storm begins to subside. Light to moderate snow may continue into Monday afternoon.
Expected Accumulations
Despite a potential period of mixed precipitation, significant snow accumulations are anticipated due to initial heavy snowfall and frozen ground conditions.
- New York City: 8-12 inches
- Long Island: North Shore and western parts may receive 8-12 inches; the South Shore and eastern half 4-9 inches.
- Central Jersey and Jersey Shore: Inland areas could see 8-12 inches; coastal areas 4-9 inches.
- North Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, and Connecticut: 12-18 inches are possible.
- Upper Hudson Valley and far northwestern New Jersey: Forecasts suggest 18-22 inches.
Ice accretion could reach 0.25 inches in some locations.
Temperature and Weather Conditions
A brief warm-up with temperatures reaching the 40s Fahrenheit occurred on Thursday. Arctic air is then expected to return before the storm's arrival. Saturday's forecast includes a high of 19 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 12 degrees Fahrenheit, with wind chills below zero. Arctic air is forecast to persist after the storm, limiting snowmelt and maintaining frozen ground into early February.
Preparations and Advisories
Governmental agencies across the Tri-State area have initiated preparations for the storm. Governors in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut have declared a state of emergency.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul activated the New York National Guard to assist in New York City, Long Island, and the northern suburbs. Mayor Zohran Mamdani advised New Yorkers that whiteout or near-blizzard conditions could occur during the storm's peak.
Potential Impacts
The storm carries a potential for travel disruptions and complicated commutes, particularly on Sunday and Monday. Increased winds and ice accretion could lead to downed trees and branches. Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion are also possible in affected areas.
The event is noted as potentially being the city's most significant snowstorm since February 2021.
Forecast Uncertainties
Uncertainties remain regarding final snow totals. These are influenced by factors such as the storm's exact track and the possibility of precipitation mixing with sleet, or the arrival of dry air during the event.