Donbas Conflict: Trilateral Talks Highlight Unresolved Territorial Issues
Delegations from the United States, Russia, and Ukraine recently convened in Abu Dhabi for their initial trilateral meeting since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Discussions focused primarily on the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas, with all parties indicating that territorial issues remain unresolved.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated Ukraine is not prepared to cede parts of its territory to Russia. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov affirmed Russia's position, indicating no long-term settlement would occur "without resolving the territorial issue" and that Russia would continue pursuing its objectives "on the battlefield" until an agreement is reached.
The Donbas Region
The Donbas comprises the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Historically a significant industrial area and steel manufacturing hub, it is rich in coal and mineral deposits, with connections to the Sea of Azov.
Russia's Stated Interests
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed views that Ukraine lacks the right to independent statehood, asserting its historical connection to Russia. He has also made unsubstantiated claims of "genocide" against Russian speakers in Ukraine. The Donbas, historically with a notable Russian-speaking population, was where Russia's efforts to destabilize Ukraine began in 2014.
Origins of the Conflict
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea following a military operation. Concurrently, Russia supported pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas, assisting them in seizing control of portions of Luhansk and Donetsk. While Russia denied direct military presence, US, NATO, and Ukrainian officials asserted the Russian government supplied and advised separatists and embedded officers.
A Dutch court found two Russians and a separatist Ukrainian guilty of mass murder related to the downing of civilian flight MH17 with a Russian-provided missile, an incident Russia has denied responsibility for. An eight-year low-intensity conflict in the Donbas resulted in approximately 14,000 casualties. In February 2022, Putin recognized the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) as independent states, leading to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine three days later.
Russian Military Efforts in Donbas
Despite considerable military resources, Russia has not fully secured the Donbas. Russian forces control nearly all of Luhansk region but approximately 70% of Donetsk. Russia aims to acquire the remaining portion of Donetsk, with two-thirds currently controlled by Ukraine and one-third being a contested zone.
Threats of force have continued, but progress on the front lines has been slow and costly. NATO's Secretary General indicated an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 Russian soldiers are killed monthly. The Institute for the Study of War estimates Russia would require an additional 1.5 years to seize the remaining Donbas areas under Kyiv's control at the current rate of advance.
Implications for Ukraine
President Zelensky has reiterated that permanent territorial concessions are non-negotiable and would be illegal under international law.
While Kyiv, supported by European nations, might consider freezing the conflict along existing front lines to halt hostilities, losing the rest of the Donbas would compromise Ukraine's defensive capabilities. The region contains a "fortress belt" of industrial cities, railways, and roads crucial for Ukraine's defense and supply lines, the loss of which would leave eastern Ukraine vulnerable.
Proposed Solutions
Details of recent proposals have not been publicly disclosed. Zelensky mentioned a US proposal for a "free economic zone" in Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donbas, suggesting Ukraine's withdrawal in exchange for security guarantees. Russia's pre-meeting statements did not indicate a readiness for territorial compromise.
Conditions Under Russian Occupation
International human rights organizations, survivors, and Ukrainian authorities have documented numerous human rights abuses in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine. Allegations include arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, torture, sexual violence, and severe restrictions on civil rights. Russia denies these accusations. A November United Nations report noted that "Russian occupying authorities continued to restrict civilians’ rights and violate fundamental provisions of international humanitarian law." Reports from Ukrainians under occupation describe forced acceptance of Russian passports, indoctrination of children, and violent suppression of resistance.