Syria: Ceasefire and Military Dynamics

The Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) extended their ceasefire in northeastern Syria for 15 days on January 24. This extension aims to support US counter-Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) objectives.

"The extension aims to support US counter-Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) objectives by creating stable conditions for Syrian government forces to secure ISIS detention facilities and enable the transfer of ISIS detainees from Syria."

US Central Command (CENTCOM) indicated that up to 7,000 ISIS detainees may be transferred to Iraqi-controlled facilities. The temporary halt in the Syrian government offensive against SDF-held territory likely followed a January 19 phone call between Syrian President Ahmed al Shara and US President Donald Trump. A successful transfer of detainees is expected to take several additional days or weeks.

Both the SDF and Syrian forces continued military preparations for a potential lapse in the ceasefire before the extension was announced. These preparations carry the risk of a resumption of intense fighting in areas such as Kobani, Hasakah City, and Qamishli. CTP-ISW previously assessed that the SDF could use such ceasefires to reorganize and prepare its Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) for defense.

SDF units largely retreated from Arab-majority areas during the initial phase of the offensive, leading to rapid Syrian government advances. The current buildup of forces by both sides and the movement of fighting into Kurdish heartland suggest that a breakdown of the ceasefire would lead to intense engagements. The SDF has established defensive lines, including trenches and mined bridges, between Hasakah City and Qamishli, and SDF units in Hasakah City have been preparing defenses. Kurds from outside Syria have also joined SDF defenses in Qamishli and Hasakah.

Syrian government forces continued to advance towards Hasakah City on January 24. The SDF stated, two hours before the initial ceasefire was set to expire, that the Syrian government had "systematically" continued its military buildup around Kobani and Hasakah. On January 24, SDF and MOD forces engaged each other with one-way attack drones southeast of Qamishli, and SDF fighters engaged Syrian government forces with unspecified weapons south of Kobani.

Humanitarian Concerns in Kobani

Kurdish and international organizations are advocating for the establishment of a humanitarian corridor in Kobani, Aleppo Province, as Syrian forces encircle the city. The Kurdish National Council (ENKS) and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) called on January 24 for a corridor to provide civilians access to aid, medical treatment, and basic necessities. The ENKS confirmed contact with the Syrian government and "every party responsible" to open a corridor. The deputy spokesperson for the UN Secretary General also noted UN contact with Syrian authorities regarding aid delivery to Kobani.

"Civilians in Kobani currently lack access to electricity, water, essential food supplies, and internet."

It remains unclear whether SDF shelling caused infrastructure failures or if the government deliberately cut access to these resources. The Syrian army announced on January 24 that it would open humanitarian corridors "in the coming hours," without specifying locations such as Kobani. Syrian government forces have surrounded SDF fighters in Kobani since January 19, in what is believed to be the initial phase of an operation to reduce SDF forces there. The pattern of events and government deployments around Kobani is consistent with previous isolate-and-reduce operations against the SDF in Aleppo City and Deir Hafer, suggesting a similar operational concept which typically includes an evacuation route for civilians before an assault.

Inter-ethnic Tensions

A resumption of fighting between the SDF and government forces could intensify ethnic-based violence. On January 23, Council of Syrian Tribes and Clans President Sheikh Abdul Moneim al Nassaf urged Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmen to unite and resist attempts to sow division. Reports persist regarding SDF violence against Arab civilians in Hasakah.

The Syrian army reported on January 24 that the SDF continues "widespread violations, including arrest operations, displacement, and torture," in SDF-controlled areas. The SDF has also continued to circulate evidence of MoD abuses against Kurds. The government has attempted to address atrocities by creating reporting mechanisms to "redress any injustice or harm" in Deir ez Zor, Raqqa, and Hasakah provinces. A renewed conflict could escalate ethnic violence, particularly given that Syrian President Ahmed al Shara has deployed divisions to the northeast containing militias known for unsanctioned attacks on minority communities, including Kurds, which have previously destabilized Syria.

Iran: Nuclear Activities and Leadership Security

Nuclear Facility Hardening

Separately, the Institute for Science and International Security reported on January 22 that Iran is encasing a newly built facility at Taleghan 2 within the Parchin Military Complex in a concrete "sarcophagus" to harden it against potential airstrikes. Growing earth piles near the facility suggest Iran intends to bury it once the concrete shell is complete. The facility contains a cylindrical chamber resembling a high explosive test chamber. In November 2025, the Institute previously assessed that Iran was constructing a possible high explosives containment vessel at Taleghan 2, noting such vessels are necessary for nuclear weapons development but also have conventional applications. Iran previously used Taleghan 2 to test explosives required for detonating a nuclear device before suspending its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Israel reportedly struck Taleghan 2 in October 2024, destroying equipment crucial for designing and testing explosives.

Supreme Leader's Relocation

Anti-regime media claimed on January 24 that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has relocated to an underground shelter in Tehran Province. Two unspecified sources close to the regime reportedly stated that Khamenei moved to a "fortified site with interconnected tunnels" following assessments by senior Iranian officials of an increased risk of a potential US attack. These sources also indicated that Khamenei’s third son, Masoud, has taken over day-to-day oversight of the Supreme Leader’s office and is now the primary liaison with government executive institutions.

This relocation is plausible, as Khamenei took similar measures during the Israel-Iran War in June 2025, when The New York Times reported he relied on a "trusted aide" and suspended electronic communications while "ensconced in a bunker." Such security measures would likely restrict access to Khamenei and disrupt regular communications within the regime. An opposition outlet previously reported that in June 2025, some Iranian officials, including former President Hassan Rouhani, reportedly attempted unsuccessfully to contact Khamenei to advocate for a ceasefire.

Iran: Warnings to the US

Iranian officials are continuing efforts to deter potential US military action against Iran amidst the United States’ military buildup in the Middle East.

"An unspecified senior Iranian official told Reuters on January 23 that Iran would consider any attack 'an all-out war.'"

This statement precedes the expected arrival of a US carrier strike group and other assets in the Middle East "in the coming days." The official expressed hope that the carrier strike group would not be used for confrontation but affirmed that Iranian armed forces are prepared for the "worst-case scenario." On January 24, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Mohammad Pakpour and IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi separately asserted that Iran is "more ready than ever" and has its "finger on the trigger." An IRGC-affiliated outlet threatened on January 24 that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz if the United States disrupts Iranian and regional security. These warnings follow recent threats by senior Iranian officials to attack US bases in the region if the United States attacks Iran.