Japan's last two giant pandas, twin cubs Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei, have departed Tokyo's Ueno Zoo for China, marking the first time the country has been without pandas since 1972. Their return occurs amidst heightened political and economic tensions between Japan and China, particularly concerning remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan and China's subsequent responses.
Departure and Significance
Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei departed from Ueno Zoo for China on Tuesday, following their final public viewing on Sunday. Born at the zoo in 2021, their parents, Shin Shin and Ri Ri, were on loan from China for breeding research. Their sister, Xiang Xiang, was repatriated earlier, and their parents returned to China in 2024.
The twin pandas are scheduled to undergo quarantine upon arrival before reuniting with Xiang Xiang at a conservation and research center in Sichuan province. This event signifies the first period without a giant panda in Japan since 1972, the year Tokyo and Beijing normalized diplomatic ties.
The Practice of Panda Diplomacy
China utilizes giant pandas as a diplomatic gesture, a practice often termed "panda diplomacy." Under this policy, China retains ownership of all pandas loaned to foreign countries, including any offspring born abroad. Host countries typically pay an annual fee, reported as approximately $1 million per panda or per pair.
Historically, panda loans have been associated with significant diplomatic events or trade agreements between China and other nations. The Washington Convention on the trade in endangered species governs these international panda loans.
Escalating Diplomatic Tensions
The pandas' return coincides with a period of strained relations between Japan and China. In November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made significant remarks:
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated she might deploy self-defense forces in response to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, describing such an event as an "existential threat" to Japan.
China responded by accusing Takaichi of interfering in its internal affairs and reportedly demanded a retraction of her statements. Prime Minister Takaichi has since described her comments as "hypothetical" and indicated she would avoid similar statements, while also refusing to issue an apology. China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force for its "reunification."
Bilateral Responses and Stances
Following the rise in tensions, China has implemented several measures:
- A decline in Chinese tourism to Japan and reduced flights between the two countries.
- Travel warnings issued for Chinese citizens intending to visit Japan.
- The cancellation or postponement of various cultural exchange events.
- Suspended seafood imports from Japan.
- Tighter restrictions on rare earth-related product exports to Japan.
- Chinese authorities have indicated no current plans to send replacement pandas to Ueno Zoo, despite requests from the Tokyo metropolitan government.
- In a related event, China previously recalled four pandas from a different Japanese town's zoo, a decision some international relations experts linked to the town's election of a pro-Taiwan mayor.
- China's Foreign Affairs Ministry has reiterated warnings regarding the safety of Chinese citizens in Japan.
On Japan's side:
- Prime Minister Takaichi's approval ratings reportedly increased following her stance towards Beijing, leading her to call a snap general election.
- Japan has increased its defense spending and is acquiring counterstrike capabilities, including long-range missiles, to move beyond purely defensive capabilities.
- The country is also pursuing deep-sea mining for rare earths to reduce its reliance on Chinese supply.
Public Sentiment and Economic Impact
Thousands of individuals visited Ueno Zoo for the final viewing days of Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei. Wait times extended up to three and a half hours, and access was limited to 4,800 people daily by reservation. A lottery system was implemented to manage demand, with 108,000 individuals reportedly seeking one of the 4,400 available slots.
Some visitors expressed disappointment over the perceived use of animals in diplomatic contexts, with one long-time panda supporter voicing a desire for the pandas not to be entangled in diplomatic disputes.
Economist Katsuhiro Miyamoto of Kansai University estimated that the absence of pandas could lead to an annual loss of approximately 20 billion yen ($128 million) for the zoo and surrounding businesses.
Uncertain Future for Panda Loans
Ueno Zoo staff intend to preserve the panda facilities and have expressed a desire to continue conservation and breeding research with China, maintaining hope for the future return of pandas. When questioned about the possibility of sending new pandas to Japan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun encouraged Japanese visitors to see pandas in China.
Experts suggest that prolonged tensions could lead to a halt in new panda loans to Japan, with prospects for resumption currently viewed as low.
Professor Rumi Aoyama, an expert in Japan-China relations, stated that giant pandas primarily serve as symbols of Sino-Japanese friendship, reflecting the state of bilateral relations rather than directly influencing them.
Analysts have expressed concerns that the escalating diplomatic tensions could potentially lead to military conflict if both nations continue assertive approaches without resolution.