President Samia Suluhu Hassan, Tanzania's first female head of state, is poised for her first presidential election on Wednesday with minimal opposition. Hassan assumed the presidency in 2021 following the death of her predecessor, John Magufuli. Her administration initiated reforms, but recent reports indicate a contraction of political freedoms, with major opposition parties and candidates disqualified or facing legal action.
Background and Policy Shifts
President Samia, 65, became Tanzania's first female head of state in 2021 after the death of then-President John Magufuli, having served as vice-president. Magufuli was noted for anti-corruption efforts but also faced criticism for authoritarian measures and his stance on the Covid-19 pandemic.
Upon taking office, President Samia introduced a policy framework focused on "reconciliation, resilience, reform and rebuilding" (the four Rs). This approach aimed to re-engage foreign investors, restore donor relations, and address concerns from international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. Political analyst Mohammed Issa noted that the relationship between Tanzania and international organizations like the World Bank was restored during this period.
Political Space and Allegations
Over the past two years, reports suggest a reduction in political space within the country. Critics of the government and opposition figures have reportedly faced increased targeting, with abductions and killings being reported. Freedom House, a US-based advocacy group, reclassified Tanzania from "partly free" in 2020 to "not free" in 2023. The Tanzanian government has not commented on these allegations.
Mohammed Issa observed that while President Samia initially adopted a conciliatory tone, her administration has since made assertive decisions. Issa indicated that the President is now associated with issues such as abductions, killings, and repression of the opposition.
Election Landscape
The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, led by President Samia, has won every election since the reintroduction of multi-party democracy in 1992. For the upcoming election, the electoral commission has cleared 17 presidential candidates.
However, the main opposition party, Chadema, has been barred from participating. Its leader, Tundu Lissu, is currently on trial for treason following his arrest in April, which occurred after he advocated for electoral reforms. Chadema has called for its supporters to boycott the election. John Heche, Chadema's deputy leader, was also arrested last week. Heche described President Samia's reforms as ineffective prior to his detention.
Luhana Mpina, from the second-largest opposition party ACT Wazalendo, was disqualified from the race twice. His candidacy was initially reinstated by the High Court after a procedural disqualification, but the electoral commission upheld the disqualification last month following an appeal by the Attorney General.
Smaller opposition parties, including Chaumma and CUF, remain in the race. Political analyst Nicodemus Minde, in a report for the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), stated that the ruling party's control, opposition exclusion, and institutional bias undermine electoral credibility, further noting limited civic space and low voter engagement.
In contrast to the mainland, the semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar, where President Samia originates, features a competitive campaign for its regional presidency. Incumbent Hussein Mwinyi of the CCM seeks re-election and faces a strong challenge from ACT-Wazalendo's Othman Masoud, who has served as his deputy in a unity government.
Voter Sentiment
On the mainland, President Samia has campaigned by highlighting her initial perceived "motherly approach" and a governance style favoring dialogue. She has promised widespread development through improvements in infrastructure, health, and education.
Some women, particularly in rural areas, view her as a stabilizing leader. Queen Castoric, a first-time voter from Tanga, expressed that President Samia's presence instills confidence in young women. In urban areas, some women, like first-time voter Celina Ponsiana in Dar es Salaam, expressed concerns about unemployment, stating that while the president supports some, many still need assistance.
A young woman in Morogoro, near Dar es Salaam, supported the president but declined to be named, citing potential backlash from peers, indicating that many youth do not speak positively about her. Young people constitute the majority of Tanzania's 37.7 million registered voters. There is reported anger among some youth regarding the president's perceived silence on abductions. While some acknowledge President Samia's role in economic stabilization, reports of rising corruption have led to a degree of nostalgia for her predecessor, Magufuli, in certain segments of the population.
Internal Dynamics and Influence
President Samia has asserted her authority at recent rallies, reminding voters of her role as "chief of the defence forces." Within the CCM party, her unchallenged candidacy for president faced some internal opposition. Humphrey Polepole, a senior party member who criticized her automatic candidacy, was later reportedly abducted under unspecified circumstances.
Nicodemus Minde's ISS report suggests that President Samia may be influenced by a powerful network of business tycoons and CCM backers, known as Mtandao. Minde indicates that internal CCM party democracy has been suppressed to ensure Samia's sole candidacy, creating a public appearance of unity despite internal divisions. It is believed that Magufuli had resisted directives from the Mtandao, prioritizing his anti-corruption agenda.
Concerns for Democracy
Analysts warn that these developments have contributed to a prevailing sense of fear in Tanzania. Self-censorship in media and a reduction in political discourse have reportedly led public debate to retreat to private conversations and social media. Analysts caution that this detachment, particularly among young people, could further undermine Tanzania's democracy and potentially lead to future challenges for President Samia if voter turnout is low or if protests emerge.
Tito Magoti, a lawyer and political activist, articulated the desire for a free Tanzania where individuals have freedom of speech, movement, and action.