Drones are employed in modern warfare, particularly in Ukraine, where attack drones are regularly used in cities like Kyiv. Concurrently, unarmed drones have been observed near airports, military bases, and power plants across Western Europe. These sightings have occurred amid allegations by some Western intelligence officials that Russia is conducting a program of 'hybrid warfare' to test the resilience of NATO countries assisting Ukraine. The Kremlin denies these allegations.
Recent drone sightings in Poland, Belgium, and Denmark near critical infrastructure have prompted discussions among NATO member states regarding enhanced defense measures.
On September 9, approximately 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, leading to the closure of four airports. NATO jets were scrambled, resulting in several drones being shot down and others crashing within Poland. This event was described as a significant breach of NATO airspace since the commencement of the conflict in Ukraine.
This incident has intensified discussions about a potential 'drone wall' for Europe, envisioned as an integrated defense system against drone incursions. Katja Bego, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, noted that these recent incursions are driving this momentum.
While drones used in eastern Ukraine are typically small, short-range devices with explosive payloads, concerns for wider Europe focus on larger drones, some capable of ranges exceeding 1,000 km. Russia has reportedly produced its own version of the Shahed 136 drone, designated Geran 2, with some identified among those entering Poland in September.
André Rogaczewski, CEO of Netcompany, stated that deploying fighter jets to counter large numbers of drones would be neither efficient nor a judicious use of taxpayer money, raising questions about scalable responses to potential mass drone deployments.
Beyond military applications, unidentified drones have been observed in Western Europe. Incidents include sightings at Belgium's main airport near Brussels earlier this month, as well as in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, and Lithuania. These 'civilian drones' have not been reported to carry explosives.
Due to their anonymous launch, proving their origin or operators, including potential launch from passing ships, presents a challenge. Western intelligence officials suspect Russia is using proxies for local drone launches to create disruption, an allegation denied by the Kremlin. Belgium has been a notable location for these sightings, hosting NATO headquarters, the European Union, and Euroclear, a financial clearing house. The appearance of drones around Brussels and Liege airports, and a military base, has coincided with an ongoing debate regarding the release of approximately €200 billion in frozen Russian assets, held in Belgium, to assist Ukraine.
The United Kingdom has deployed counter-drone specialists from the RAF Regiment to Belgium to enhance its defenses. Concerns regarding these unidentified drones include potential hazards to aircraft operations and risks of surveillance, particularly near military bases and critical infrastructure.
The proposed 'drone wall' is a European initiative designed to counter cross-border drone incursions, specifically those attributed to Russia. It is envisioned as an integrated, coordinated, multi-layered defense system extending from the Baltic states to the Black Sea.
The system is expected to incorporate radars, sensors, jamming technologies, and weapons systems for drone detection, tracking, and destruction. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has indicated a target operational date of late 2027 for a new anti-drone system.
Countries geographically proximate to Russia, such as Poland and Finland, have expressed strong interest in its rapid deployment. Katja Bego considers the initiative necessary and overdue, while also highlighting existing deficiencies in traditional missile and air defense along the Eastern flank borders.
However, Robert Tollast, a research fellow at The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), suggested that an 'impervious wall' is unrealistic. He acknowledged the rationale for such a system, particularly for countries near the Russian border, including the Baltics, Poland, and Germany. Ms. Bego clarified that the objective is not to construct a fully impenetrable wall, which she deems infeasible due to technological limitations and geographical length. Instead, the aim is to establish a combination of technologies capable of intercepting various drone types.
Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at The International Institute for Strategic Studies, outlined various drone detection methods, including acoustic detection; airborne radars for low-flying targets; ground-based radars for high-flying targets; and optical or infrared systems.
Countermeasures are categorized as 'soft kill' or 'hard kill.' Hard kill involves destroying drones using gunfire or missiles, while soft kill entails rendering them ineffective through electronic means, such as jamming. While jamming can be circumvented in short-range battlefield scenarios using fiber-optic cables, this method is not applicable for longer-range incursions. Hard kill options include surface-to-air missiles, fighter jets, helicopters, and potentially lasers. André Rogaczewski advocates for the effectiveness of jamming as an alternative. An effective drone wall would need to address a wide array of aerial threats, potentially simultaneously.
Rising tensions between Europe and Russia since February 2022 have coincided with an increase in incidents attributed to 'hybrid warfare' by Russia, including cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and infrastructure surveillance or sabotage. Russia denies involvement in most of these incidents.
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Italian chairperson of NATO's Military Committee, identified air defense as NATO's top priority. Initial phases of the drone wall are expected to activate within months, with NATO's Allied Command Transformation (ACT) developing long-term solutions.
The primary challenge for the drone wall is the extensive area requiring protection, necessitating a diverse range of tactical and larger radars across thousands of kilometers, along with cost-effective interceptors and constant readiness. Complete impermeability is not expected, and while costs for some components may decrease, overall expenditure is anticipated to be substantial.
Financing the drone wall presents a complex issue, according to Robert Tollast, due to competition for defense funding from other sectors such as naval assets, submarines, nuclear weapons, and satellites. Funding sources could include EU contributions, national budgets (particularly in Eastern Europe), and interest from frozen Russian assets.
Ms. Bego noted that while the concept initially focused on the Eastern flank, the EU's involvement has led to an expansion. Coordination and funding mobilization are recognized as necessary, with the comprehensiveness of the system directly correlating with its cost. Mr. Tollast considers the 2027 target date ambitious but believes significant protection can be achieved by then.
The development of counter-drone measures faces rapid obsolescence due to the accelerated development cycles in drone technology, particularly in conflict zones. Josh Burch, co-founder of Gallos Technologies, stated that defenses can quickly become outdated as aggressors adapt, observing and adjusting tactics until successful.
This dynamic has led to a strategic debate: whether to focus solely on defensive measures (the 'drone wall') or to target the origins of drone launches. Ms. Bego argued that while resilience is important, preventing incidents altogether by making it clear to actors like Russia that such behavior has consequences and costs for them would be preferable.
However, any kinetic NATO action against Russian targets is viewed as highly risky and escalatory, potentially leading to a direct NATO-Russia conflict. NATO's strategy since February 2022 has aimed to support Ukraine without direct military engagement with Russia. Consequently, building a defensive drone wall in Europe is a distinct approach from attacking drone launch sites.