Southeast Asian Diplomats Tackle Myanmar War, South China Sea Code in Cebu

Southeast Asian diplomats convened in Cebu, Philippines, to address two primary regional challenges: the ongoing civil war in Myanmar and negotiations for a code of conduct in the South China Sea.

Myanmar's Civil War and ASEAN's Peace Efforts

ASEAN, an 11-nation bloc, has historically faced challenges in maintaining unity, as evidenced by past internal conflicts such as a border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. The Philippines currently holds ASEAN's rotating chair, taking Myanmar's turn after the military's 2021 ouster of Aung San Suu Kyi's democratically elected government.

ASEAN does not recognize Myanmar's military government, and its leaders are barred from attending bloc meetings, though lower-level diplomats may participate.

The civil war has resulted in tens of thousands of casualties and millions displaced, presenting a significant challenge and source of embarrassment for ASEAN amidst international pressure.

• Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan indicated that ASEAN leaders decided not to send observers to Myanmar's recent elections due to conditions not meeting credible poll standards, although some member countries did so independently.
• ASEAN's five-point peace plan, proposed in 2021, calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and dialogue but has not yet ended the violence or fostered communication among parties.
• Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, ASEAN's special envoy to Myanmar, reported on her recent visit to Myanmar and a conference she organized in the Philippines for groups opposing the military government.
• Discussions included enforcing the peace plan, advancing de-escalation, facilitating humanitarian assistance, addressing transnational crime, and fostering political dialogue, reaffirming ASEAN's commitment to a "Myanmar-owned and Myanmar-led" solution.

South China Sea Code of Conduct Negotiations

ASEAN foreign ministers are also under pressure to finalize negotiations with China on a "code of conduct" for managing disputes in the South China Sea. The original deadline for these talks was set for the end of 2026.

• China's expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea overlap with those of four ASEAN members.

The objective of the code is to prevent conflicts that could potentially involve U.S. forces, given Washington's treaty obligations to defend the Philippines.

• Negotiations for this code of conduct have extended over two decades without major breakthroughs on contentious issues, such as whether the agreement should be legally binding.
• Analysts like Lupita Wijaya suggest that concluding the talks will be difficult due to fundamental differences between ASEAN claimant states and China regarding interpretations of international law and the code's legal enforceability.