Japan-China Diplomatic Row Deepens Over Taiwan Remarks

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's parliamentary statements regarding a potential Chinese military action against Taiwan have ignited a diplomatic dispute with China. The remarks, which addressed scenarios that could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, have led to reciprocal protests, economic measures from China, and domestic criticism within Japan.

Initial Parliamentary Remarks

The diplomatic tensions commenced on November 7 during a parliamentary meeting in Japan. Opposition lawmaker Katsuya Okada questioned Prime Minister Takaichi about the circumstances under which a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan or other use of force could be considered a "survival-threatening situation" (STS) for Japan.

Takaichi responded, "If there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation."

Under Japan's 2015 security legislation, an STS is defined as an armed attack on a foreign country that poses an existential threat to Japan, allowing for the activation of Japan's self-defense forces. The Prime Minister and Cabinet possess discretion in defining an existential threat, subject to parliamentary approval. Okada expressed concern that this interpretation provided broad governmental discretion.

China's Immediate Diplomatic Response

Following Prime Minister Takaichi's comments, China's foreign ministry described them as "egregious" and lodged protests with Japan.

On November 24, Chinese leader Xi Jinping conveyed to U.S. President Trump that "Taiwan's return to China is an integral part of the post-war international order." President Trump's social media post about the call did not mention Taiwan.

On the Saturday following Takaichi's remarks, Xue Jian, China's consul general in Osaka, reshared a news article detailing the remarks on X (formerly Twitter), including a comment stating, "the dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off." Japan's chief cabinet secretary, Minoru Kihara, stated on Monday that while Xue's intent "may not be clear," his remarks were "highly inappropriate." Tokyo subsequently lodged a protest with China regarding Xue's comments. Xue's social media post was later removed.

Prime Minister Takaichi's Continued Stance

Prime Minister Takaichi declined to retract her remarks, asserting on the Tuesday following her initial statement that they were "consistent with the government's traditional position." She indicated, however, that she would exercise caution when commenting on specific scenarios in the future. Takaichi defended her parliamentary statements by noting she had sought to provide specific examples when asked.

On January 25, Prime Minister Takaichi reiterated her position on a TV program, stating that Japan would "respond while comprehensively assessing the situation within the scope of current laws" and would "go to rescue Japanese and American citizens in Taiwan" if a serious event occurred. She also claimed that the US-Japan security alliance would "collapse" if Japan did not respond to an attack on US forces during a Taiwan Straits crisis.

Broader Chinese Measures and Demands

China has increased diplomatic and economic pressure on Japan. This has included:

• Lodging two letters of protest with the United Nations.
• Suspending seafood imports from Japan.
• Advising its citizens against travel to Japan.
• Canceling cultural events such as movie screenings and concerts.
• Implementing tighter dual-use export controls to Japan in January, covering items like rare-earth-related products.

On January 26, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun urged Japan to adhere to the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan and its commitments. Guo stated that Japan's remarks revealed ambitions of "right-wing forces to provoke antagonism, remilitarize Japan, and challenge the post-war international order," which he said threatened regional peace, stability, and the political foundation of China-Japan relations. China continues to demand a retraction of Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks.

Domestic Reaction in Japan

Prime Minister Takaichi's statements and approach to China have drawn criticism within Japan from both the business community and the public.

An article by Asahi Shimbun reported dissatisfaction among Japanese businesses. An executive from an auto parts manufacturer stated, "I hope the prime minister would just act normally and stop doing unnecessary things." A representative from an economic organization commented, "The way of fighting is wrong. She's overstimulating China." Business community sentiment also included complaints that she "destroyed relations with her own words" despite claims of prioritizing the economy. Projections indicated that if rare earth supply shortages worsen, business dissatisfaction with the Takaichi administration could increase.

Public dissatisfaction was reflected on social media platform X, where users commented that Takaichi's November remarks on Taiwan were a "clear provocation" and suggested a need for a change in government due to perceived failures in prioritizing national interests and realistic risk management.

An opinion poll by Mainichi Shimbun from January 24-25 showed a decline in approval for Takaichi's cabinet, dropping 10 points to 57% from 67% in December. Disapproval ratings increased by 7 points to 29%. Takaichi has also faced criticism for dissolving the lower house to call a snap general election.

Historical Context and Strategic Views

Bilateral relations between China and Japan have a history that includes armed conflicts in the 1800s and Japan's military campaign in China during World War Two. China asserts sovereignty over Taiwan, considering the self-governed island part of its territory, and has maintained that it does not rule out the use of force to incorporate it. Earlier in the month, Beijing had accused Takaichi of violating the "one-China principle" after she met a senior Taiwanese official at the APEC summit.

Japan's constitution prohibits offensive warfare, but its 2015 security legislation permits the use of its military for self-defense or in response to an armed attack on an ally (specifically the U.S., with whom Japan has a mutual defense treaty since 1960) that constitutes an existential threat to Japan.

Prime Minister Takaichi, associated with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's political faction, holds conservative views. Her policy platform includes pursuing closer ties with the United States and increasing Japan's defense spending. She has consistently expressed support for Taiwan, previously stating that a blockade of Taiwan could pose a threat to Japan and that Japan could mobilize its troops to counter a Chinese invasion.

Historically, the U.S., China, and Japan have generally maintained strategic ambiguity regarding potential actions in a Taiwan conflict. U.S. President Joe Biden has made similar statements on four occasions, with the White House subsequently reiterating no change in U.S. policy.

Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, Beijing, characterized Takaichi's remarks as a "significant misstep." He asserted that an independent Japanese defense of Taiwan would be impossible due to the military disparity between China and Japan.

Akio Takahara, a political scientist at Tokyo University, suggested that China's pressure campaign is directed at Japan rather than the U.S. due to perceived differences in national strength. Takahara noted that Japan-China relations have historically experienced fluctuations and are likely to recover, observing that China's current reactions appear milder compared to past incidents like the 2012 protests following Japan's purchase of the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.

Xiang Haoyu, a research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, stated that growing corporate costs and supply chain crises have led to sharper criticism from the business community, which he described as "the inevitable backlash of economic rationality against political adventurism." Xiang indicated that calls for "acting normally" from Japan's business sector include respecting the political foundation of China-Japan relations, ceasing rhetoric and military provocations on the Taiwan question, ensuring supply chain stability for critical materials, promoting high-level and people-to-people exchanges, and abandoning current political provocation.

Ongoing Diplomatic Landscape

Prime Minister Takaichi has declined to retract her remarks but remains open to negotiations. Zhou Bo stated that from Beijing's perspective, the Taiwan issue is a matter of critical importance, leaving little room for compromise.

Some Japanese observers have voiced concerns about potential U.S. deals with China that could affect Taiwan and Japan. The Japanese government, however, denied reports that U.S. President Trump advised Takaichi against escalating the feud. Xiang Haoyu noted that while some Western leaders have adjusted their China policies, Japan's continued stance risks isolation and missed opportunities for cooperation, particularly in areas like critical mineral supply chains.