Monitoring of Vessels in the Baltic Sea
In the western Baltic Sea, Swedish Coastguard officers routinely contact oil tankers for information regarding insurance, flag state, and last port of call. One Swedish investigator, Jonatan Tholin, indicated suspicion that a contacted vessel would transport oil to Russia. This activity occurs in an area where European entities monitor vessels commonly referred to as the "shadow fleet." This term describes hundreds of tankers utilized in operations suspected of bypassing a price cap on Russian oil exports. Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, several Western countries implemented sanctions on Russian energy. Russia is accused of circumventing these sanctions by shipping oil on older tankers, often associated with undisclosed ownership or insurance.
Concerns Regarding Vessel Operations
European coastguards and navies frequently encounter vessels suspected of transporting oil as part of the shadow fleet. Some vessels in this fleet are also suspected of involvement in undersea sabotage, unauthorized drone launches, or falsifying location data. Navigation freedom is a principle at sea, which limits the intervention capabilities of coastal countries, despite identified risks.
- Flagging and Insurance Issues: A growing number of vessels in the shadow fleet operate without valid national flags. This can result in vessels being stateless and lacking proper insurance coverage. Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward AI, noted that many of these vessels are aging. The absence of proper insurance raises concerns regarding accountability and financial responsibility in the event of incidents like oil spills.
- Increase in Falsely Flagged Ships: The number of falsely flagged ships globally has more than doubled in the current year, reaching over 450, primarily tankers. This data is from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) database and is attributed to increased sanctions and enforcement efforts.
Observations from Estonian Navy
Commodore Ivo Värk, head of Estonia's navy, reported an increase in the number of such vessels transiting past Estonia to major Russian oil terminals like Ust-Luga and Primorsk. He stated that dozens of these vessels have been observed this year, compared to one or two in previous periods.
Case Study: The Tanker Unity
The BBC tracked a tanker named Unity, observed on the MarineTraffic app, during its movement towards a Russian port. An investigation into Unity's history reveals characteristics associated with the shadow fleet.
- Operational History: Tracking data indicates Unity has traversed the English Channel four times in the last twelve months, including journeys between Russian ports and India. India is a significant oil customer that has not endorsed the price cap.
- Previous Incidents: Originally named Ocean Explorer and built in 2009, the vessel flew the Singapore flag for over a decade. In 2018, it was cited in a UN report for alleged involvement in a ship-to-ship transfer with a vessel sanctioned for transporting fuel to North Korea.
- Changes in Identity: By late 2021, operating as Ocean Vela, the vessel registered with the Marshall Islands. It was removed from this registry in 2024 after its operator and beneficial owning company were sanctioned by the UK. The tanker has subsequently operated under names including Beks Swan, March, and Unity, and has claimed flags from Panama, Russia, and Gambia, while retaining its unique IMO number.
- False Flagging: In August, ship broadcasting data indicated Unity claimed the flag of Lesotho, which was designated as "false." Lesotho, a landlocked African country, does not possess an official maritime registry according to the IMO.
Ownership and Sanctions
The listed owner of Unity, Dubai-registered FMTC Ship Charter LLC, has not responded to inquiries. Maritime intelligence company Windward AI reports that the beneficial owners of 60% of shadow fleet vessels remain unidentified. Opaque ownership structures and frequent changes in vessel names or flags are identified as characteristics of the shadow fleet used to avoid detection. Some vessels, having been removed from established registries and utilizing lower-quality alternatives, are now reported to operate without bothering to claim any flag.
Unity's most recent voyage involved sailing through the North Sea in late October before entering the Baltic and passing countries including Sweden and Estonia. As of the time of publication, it was anchored outside the Russian port of Ust-Luga. Unity was added to the UK and EU's list of sanctioned vessels earlier in the year. Despite this, it continues to operate, though it has reportedly experienced mechanical issues. In January, it reportedly sought shelter in the English Channel following a mechanical failure during a storm. In August, it was reportedly detained at a Russian port due to technical issues and unpaid wages.
Economic Impact and Enforcement Limitations
Unity is one of many vessels subject to UK and EU service and port bans, which aim to apply economic pressure. Russian revenues from crude and oil product sales totaled $13.1 billion in October, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This figure represents a decrease of $2.3 billion compared to October of the previous year. Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air suggests that vessels identified as shadow tankers, either sanctioned or suspected, account for 62% of shipped Russian crude oil exports. China and India are the largest customers for crude, followed by Turkey and the European Union.
While political discussions focus on strengthening actions, navy and coastguard officers indicate that a country's authority to intervene diminishes further out at sea. The right of innocent passage is a fundamental principle of maritime law; however, stateless vessels are technically not afforded this right. Countries such as France, Finland, and Estonia have detained ships when a crime is suspected, but such actions are infrequent. Commodore Ivo Värk stated that the complexity and the risk of escalation due to the Russian presence near borders limit the regularity of such interventions.