National Poll Shows Democratic Advantage for Congress and Low Presidential Approval

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National Poll Indicates Democratic Advantage for Congressional Control, Low Presidential Approval

A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, conducted from November 10-13 among 1,443 adults, indicates a significant lead for Democrats concerning hypothetical congressional elections and reflects a low approval rating for President Trump.

Congressional Ballot Results

The survey found Democrats holding a 14-point advantage over Republicans, with 55% of respondents stating they would vote for a Democratic candidate in their district if the election for Congress were held today, compared to 41% for Republicans. This represents the largest Democratic lead on the congressional ballot question in the Marist poll since November 2017.

Key findings include:

  • Overall Advantage: Democrats lead Republicans 55%-41% on the generic congressional ballot.
  • Independent Voters: Independents favored Democratic candidates by a 33-point margin.
  • Historical Context:
    • In fall 2022 (during President Biden's term), Democrats' lead ranged from 0 to 4 points, preceding a loss of 9 House seats.
    • In 2018 (during President Trump's first term), Democrats' lead ranged between 6 and 12 points, preceding a gain of 40 House seats.
    • In 2014 (during President Obama's term), Republicans held a 5-point advantage, preceding a gain of 13 House seats.

Redistricting efforts by both major parties are noted as factors potentially influencing future electoral outcomes and limiting the number of highly competitive seats.

Presidential Approval and Priorities

President Trump's approval rating stood at 39%, marking his lowest approval in the Marist poll since January 6, 2021. The survey also reported:

  • Strong Disapproval: 48% of respondents strongly disapproved of the President's job performance, the highest such figure since January 6, 2021.
  • Independent Approval: Among independents, President Trump's approval rating was 24%.
  • Republican Approval: 9-in-10 Republicans reported approving of the President's job performance.
  • Top Priority: 57% of respondents identified lowering prices as the President's top priority, while 16% selected immigration. Among Republicans, 40% prioritized lowering prices, compared to 34% who prioritized immigration.

Public Confidence in Institutions and Inter-Party Perceptions

The poll also gauged public confidence in various institutions and perceptions between political parties:

  • Confidence in Institutions (Little to No Confidence):
    • Congress: 80%
    • Media: 75%
    • Democratic Party: 71%
    • Republican Party: 65%
    • Supreme Court: 62%
    • Presidency: 61%
  • Party Confidence Disparity: While 80% of Republicans expressed