India's relationship with Bangladesh under former leader Sheikh Hasina was characterized by strategic alignment and cooperation. During her 15 years in power, the relationship provided stability and enhanced connectivity for India, with Bangladesh often aligning its interests with India's.
Sheikh Hasina is currently in India following her ousting from power after student-led protests in 2024. A special tribunal in Bangladesh has sentenced her to death for crimes against humanity related to a crackdown on these protests. The 2024 demonstrations led to her departure and the formation of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, with elections scheduled for early next year. Bangladesh's government has requested Hasina's extradition from India. India has not indicated a willingness to comply with this request, rendering the death sentence unenforceable.
India's provision of asylum to Sheikh Hasina has created a diplomatic challenge. According to South Asia expert Michael Kugelman, India has four main options. These include extraditing Hasina, maintaining the current situation, attempting to restrict her public statements, or arranging for her relocation to a third country. Extradition is considered a difficult option due to long-standing political ties between Indian parties and Hasina. The second option, maintaining the status quo, may present increased risks after Bangladesh's upcoming elections. Restricting Hasina's public activities is unlikely to be accepted by her, as she continues to lead the Awami League party, and may be difficult for India to enforce. Securing a third country for her asylum is also considered complex due to potential legal and security considerations.
Economic and Strategic Importance
The relationship between India and Bangladesh is characterized by significant interdependence, with historical roots in India's support during Bangladesh's independence. Bangladesh is India's largest trading partner in South Asia, and India serves as Bangladesh's primary export market in Asia. Last year, bilateral trade amounted to approximately $13 billion. Bangladesh maintains a trade deficit with India and relies on Indian raw materials, energy, and transit routes. Over the past decade, India has provided $8-10 billion in concessional credit, duty-free access for certain goods, developed cross-border rail infrastructure, and supplies electricity, oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its grids and ports. Professor Sanjay Bhardwaj of Jawaharlal Nehru University notes that both nations are interdependent for resources such as water and electricity, indicating the foundational nature of their cooperation.
Bangladesh's Shifting Foreign Policy
Bangladesh's interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, has undertaken diplomatic initiatives in its initial months, which have been described as efforts to rebalance the nation's foreign policy. Political scientist Bian Sai, in a paper from the National University of Singapore, suggests these actions indicate a shift. The interim government has reportedly canceled judicial exchanges, initiated renegotiations of energy agreements with India, reduced the pace of India-led connectivity projects, and increased engagement with Beijing, Islamabad, and Ankara for strategic partnerships.
Public Sentiment and Enduring Ties
Public sentiment in Bangladesh indicates a shift, with a recent survey by the Dhaka-based Centre for Alternatives reporting that over 75% of Bangladeshis viewed relations with Beijing positively, compared to 11% for Delhi. This reflects public opinion following the 2024 uprising. Reasons cited for the sentiment include perceived Indian support for Sheikh Hasina's previous administration and a view of India as a dominant neighbor. Professor Sanjay Bhardwaj notes that economic and cultural ties often persist despite political changes, citing bilateral trade growth between 2001 and 2006 during the tenure of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). He states that while diplomatic and political relations can vary with changes in government, economic, cultural, and sports connections generally remain stable, and a less aligned administration does not automatically disrupt trade or broader bilateral relations.
India's Security Interests and Diplomacy
India's security interests involve maintaining stability in Bangladesh, crucial for counterterrorism efforts, border management, and access to India's northeastern region. The two countries share a 4,096 km (2,545 mile) border, which includes porous and riverine sections. Experts indicate that internal instability in Bangladesh could potentially lead to population displacement or extremist mobilization. Avinash Paliwal, a professor at SOAS University of London, suggests that India should engage with political stakeholders in Dhaka, including the armed forces, through patient diplomatic efforts.