Home | My Feed | Saved Stories | About | Privacy
Back

Statistical Models Analyze AFL 2025 Performance, Project 2026 Outcomes

Show me the source 2 Sources
Generated on: Last updated:

AFL 2025 Season: Discrepancies Between Records and Statistical Performance Point to 2026 Shifts

Statistical models, including expected wins (xWins) and Pythagorean wins, have been utilized to evaluate the performance of Australian Football League (AFL) teams during the 2025 season. This analysis has identified significant discrepancies between actual win-loss records and underlying statistical performance, providing crucial insights into potential regressions or improvements for teams in the upcoming 2026 season.

Introduction to Statistical Metrics

The evaluation of AFL team performance often goes beyond mere win-loss records, delving into statistical models for deeper insights. Wheelo Ratings' 'xWins' metric provides an expected number of wins for an AFL team, derived from their expected scores in each game.

Similarly, the Pythagorean expectation formula, originally a baseball metric adapted for AFL by Foxfooty.com.au, estimates expected wins based on a team's scoring differential (points scored versus points allowed). Both methods serve to highlight teams whose actual records may not fully align with their underlying statistical strength, thereby suggesting potential future shifts in their win-loss records.

Methodology and Historical Accuracy

The Pythagorean expectation formula has a proven track record in predicting AFL outcomes.

Of the 20 strongest predictions made using this formula since 2010, 16 were accurate. This accuracy rate climbed to 78.2% (18 out of 23 predictions) when the discrepancy between a team's actual and Pythagorean wins was 2.5 games or more.

2025 Season Performance Review

In the 2025 AFL season, the majority of clubs—twelve out of 18—finished within one win of their expected wins total. This indicates their records largely mirrored statistical expectations. However, several clubs demonstrated notable deviations from these statistical benchmarks.

Teams Exceeding Expected Wins

  • GWS Giants: Recorded 3.5 more wins than their expected wins (xWins) in 2025. This marks their second consecutive season of winning over three games more than predicted by this metric.
  • Adelaide Crows: The minor premiers won 2.9 more games than anticipated based on the xWins metric. Earlier Pythagorean analysis for 2025 had accurately forecast improvement for the Crows, noting their actual eight wins with a 99.1% percentage suggested a higher total.
  • Collingwood Magpies (2023 Season): In 2023, Collingwood famously won 4.8 more games than expected, standing as the only premiership team since 2021 to exceed their xWins by more than 1.0 games.
  • Fremantle: Achieved 16 wins against a Pythagorean expectation of 13.4 wins, creating a significant gap of 2.6 wins. This performance came after a season where they secured five out of eight close matches, a notable improvement from their 1-5 record with a draw in 2024.

Teams Falling Below Expected Wins

  • Melbourne Demons: Underperformed significantly, losing 4.0 more games than expected according to the xWins metric. Statistical analysis indicated their underlying performance was closer to teams like Sydney and Carlton, despite their actual win-loss record of 7-16. The Pythagorean model suggested they should have won approximately 10 games, a gap of 3 wins.
  • Western Bulldogs: Finished the season with a 14-9 record, despite a Pythagorean expectation of 17.8 wins, a substantial gap of 3.8 wins. The Bulldogs recorded the third-best percentage in the AFL for 2025, with nine of their losses occurring within a margin of six to 22 points.
  • North Melbourne: Lost 2.0 more games than expected based on the xWins metric.
  • West Coast Eagles: Lost 1.7 more games than expected by the xWins metric. Their actual 1-22 record was indicated to not fully reflect their underlying performance level; the Pythagorean model suggested they should have secured at least 2.8 wins.
  • Carlton: Recorded 9 wins against a Pythagorean expectation of 10.7 wins, a gap of 1.7 wins. They were noted as being more competitive than their win total suggested, with only four losses by six goals or more.

2026 Season Predictions

Based on the Pythagorean wins analysis from the 2025 season, the following predictions have been made for the 2026 AFL season:

Teams Predicted to Improve

  • Western Bulldogs: Predicted to improve from their 2025 record of 14-9. Their 2025 Pythagorean wins total was 17.8, representing a gap of 3.8 wins.
  • Melbourne: Predicted to improve from their 2025 record of 7-16. Their 2025 Pythagorean wins total was 10, a gap of 3 wins, indicating performance closer to a nine or ten-win team.
  • West Coast Eagles: Predicted to improve from their 2025 record of 1-22. Their 2025 Pythagorean wins total was 2.8, a gap of 1.8 wins, suggesting they should have achieved at least two or three wins.
  • Carlton: Predicted to improve from their 2025 record of 9-14. Their 2025 Pythagorean wins total was 10.7, a gap of 1.7 wins, suggesting a slightly better win-loss record was statistically indicated.

Teams Predicted to Decline

  • Fremantle: Predicted to decline from their 2025 record of 16-7. Their 2025 Pythagorean wins total was 13.4, a gap of 2.6 wins.
  • Port Adelaide: Predicted to decline from their 2025 record of 9-14. Their 2025 Pythagorean wins total was 6.8, a gap of 2.2 wins. The team's 2025 season included seven losses by eight goals or more, resulting in a low percentage.
  • Brisbane Lions: Predicted to decline from their 2025 record of 16-6-1. Their 2025 Pythagorean wins total was 14.4, a gap of 2.1 wins. The reigning premiers' 2025 season included performances such as losses to Melbourne and Sydney at home, and a draw with North Melbourne, suggesting they overperformed their statistical expectation by approximately two wins.