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U.S. Retail Sector Forecasts Increased Store Openings and Decreased Closures in 2026, Led by Value Chains

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U.S. Retail Outlook: Openings Projected to Rise, Closures to Fall by 2026

U.S. retail store openings are projected to increase, and closures are expected to decrease in 2026 compared to 2025, according to an analysis by Coresight Research. Value retailers are anticipated to drive this growth by continuing to attract consumer spending.

Coresight projects approximately 7,900 store closures in 2026, representing a 4.5% year-over-year decrease and the lowest number in three years. Concurrently, around 5,500 new stores are expected to open, a 4.4% year-over-year increase.

2026 Projections: A Shifting Retail Landscape

The upcoming year points to a strategic shift in retail footprints. Leading the charge for planned store openings in 2026 are Dollar General, Aldi, and Tractor Supply. Conversely, retailers projected to have the most planned closures include GameStop, Francesca's, and Walgreens.

Economic Factors and Enduring Trends

John Mercer, Coresight's head of global research, anticipates a gradual easing of economic factors such as high inflation and a slow housing market in the coming year, indicating an incremental improvement in retail real estate plans over 2025.

Persistent industry themes include department stores and legacy retailers continuing to reduce their store counts. In contrast, value players—including discounters, warehouse clubs, and off-price chains—are actively expanding their national footprints. Additionally, reinvented mall retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch and Gap are notably outperforming smaller specialty apparel retailers.

Recent Major Closures and Bankruptcies

Recent major store closure announcements highlight the ongoing evolution within the sector:

  • GameStop has announced plans to shut hundreds of locations.
  • Francesca's decided to close nearly 460 stores following a bankruptcy filing and liquidation.
  • Amazon announced it would close all Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go locations, converting some into Whole Foods Market stores, signaling an end to its latest brick-and-mortar grocery experiment.

This year, Saks Global (parent of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus) and LKM Convenience (a Louisiana-based convenience store operator) have filed for bankruptcy.

Looking Back: 2023's Closures and Drivers

Last year saw 8,270 store closures, a figure lower than anticipated and down from 8,825 in 2024 and 9,700 in 2020. Mercer noted that higher tariffs did not impact consumer spending as much as expected, partly due to retailers importing early shipments and absorbing costs. Affluent Americans also contributed to maintaining spending levels.

Retail bankruptcies were a primary driver of downsizing last year, with 32 filings. Notable retailers reducing their store footprints included Rite Aid, Joann, Party City, Big Lots, Walgreens, and CVS Health.

Real Estate Outlook: Tightening Supply Ahead

Naveen Jaggi, president of retail advisory services for JLL, suggests that an expected slowdown in bankruptcies could tighten real estate demand. Many real estate deals for 2026 openings were finalized in 2024, a year when significant space became available due to bankruptcies from companies like Bed Bath & Beyond, Joann, and Forever 21.

Jaggi predicts a "world of dwindling supply" by 2029 and 2030. New strip mall construction has been slow due to high labor costs and interest rates, though this could change if costs stabilize and retailers commit to funding new builds. Retailers are also competing for prime strip mall space with expanding food and beverage concepts (e.g., Raising Cane's) and fitness studios (e.g., Soulcycle).