Vietnamese Military Document Outlines Preparations for Potential American "War of Aggression"

A report released by The 88 Project, a human rights organization, indicates that an internal Vietnamese military document outlines preparations for a potential American "war of aggression" and identifies the United States as a "belligerent" power. This information emerges a year after Vietnam and the U.S. elevated their diplomatic relations to the highest level.

Document Content and Concerns

The Vietnamese Ministry of Defense completed the document, titled “The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan,” in August 2024. It suggests that the U.S. and its allies might employ unconventional warfare and military intervention, including large-scale invasions, against countries that "deviate from its orbit" to enhance deterrence against China.

• While noting a low current risk of war with Vietnam, the planners recommend vigilance against the U.S.'s "belligerent nature" to prevent the creation of a pretext for invasion.
• The document describes a perceived U.S. strategy across the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations to build military and other relationships with Asian nations to "form a front against China."

The planners recommend vigilance against the U.S.'s "belligerent nature" to prevent the creation of a pretext for invasion.

Diplomatic Duality

Despite a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" signed by President Biden in 2023, which positioned U.S.-Vietnam relations on par with those with Russia and China, the military document portrays a different internal view.

• The document states that the U.S., while seeing Vietnam as a partner, also aims to "spread and impose its values regarding freedom, democracy, human rights, ethnicity and religion" to gradually alter Vietnam’s socialist government.
• Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project, characterized this as Hanoi viewing Washington as an "existential threat" with no intention of joining an anti-China alliance.

The U.S., while seeing Vietnam as a partner, also aims to "spread and impose its values regarding freedom, democracy, human rights, ethnicity and religion" to gradually alter Vietnam’s socialist government.

Analysis and Context

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment, while the U.S. State Department emphasized the new partnership's role in promoting prosperity and security.

• Nguyen Khac Giang of the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute suggested these plans reveal internal tensions within Vietnam's leadership, particularly from a conservative, military-aligned faction concerned about regime stability.
• Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College, noted the Vietnamese military's enduring memory of the U.S. war and highlighted leaders' primary concern about a "color revolution" rather than just Chinese aggression.
• Past reductions in U.S. Agency for International Development funding during the Trump administration, which affected projects like Agent Orange cleanup, further contributed to a lack of trust.
• While China is Vietnam's largest trade partner and a regional rival, Abuza indicated that China is not seen as an existential threat to the Communist Party of Vietnam.

Recent Developments and Future Concerns

Under Vietnamese leader To Lam, who recently became Communist Party general secretary, Vietnam has sought to strengthen U.S. ties.

• A $1.5 billion Trump-branded golf resort and real estate project has broken ground in Hung Yen province.
• Lam's rapid acceptance of Trump’s invitation to join the Board of Peace was observed.
• However, U.S. military actions, such as efforts to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, have fueled unease among Vietnamese conservatives about closer U.S. ties, particularly regarding Vietnam's ally Cuba. Such actions could disrupt Vietnam’s strategic balance.