AUKUS Submarine Acquisition Plan Under Scrutiny Following US Congressional Report and Production Challenges

US Congressional Report Casts Doubt on AUKUS Submarine Transfers, Australia Reiterates Commitment

A recent report by the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) has raised questions regarding the United States' commitment to selling Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia under the AUKUS security pact. The report proposed alternative arrangements amidst ongoing challenges in US submarine production capacity and varying strategic considerations. While Australian officials have reiterated their commitment to the existing AUKUS plan, some critics, including former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, have characterized the agreement as disadvantageous for Australia.

Overview of AUKUS Pillar One

The AUKUS agreement is a trilateral security pact involving Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, with its "Pillar One" focusing on Australia acquiring conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines. The current plan outlines two main stages:

• Stage 1: Australia is expected to purchase between three and five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US, with the first delivery projected for 2032. This transfer is contingent on the US President certifying that it will not diminish the US Navy's undersea capabilities.
• Stage 2: By the late 2030s, the UK plans to launch its first specifically designed AUKUS submarine. The first Australian-built AUKUS submarine for the Royal Australian Navy is anticipated in the early 2040s, with Australia planning to build up to eight vessels by the 2060s.

The overall cost for Australia is estimated at up to A$368 billion by the mid-2050s, which includes responsibility for securing and storing high-level nuclear waste. As an initial step in Pillar One, HMS Anson, a Royal Navy Astute-class submarine, has commenced its deployment to the Submarine Rotational Force–West in Western Australia.

US Congressional Research Service Report Highlights

A January report by the US Congressional Research Service (CRS), a policy research arm of Congress, considered the possibility of the US Navy not selling any nuclear submarines to Australia.

The CRS report proposed an alternative "military division of labour." Under this scenario, submarines earmarked for sale to Australia could be retained under US command and operated from Australian bases. This alternative was presented as a means to ensure immediate deployment in a "conflict or crisis" with China over Taiwan.

"The report suggested that Australian-commanded submarines might not be ordered into operation without Australia guaranteeing support for the US in such a conflict, which could 'weaken rather than strengthen deterrence and warfighting capability'."

The report also speculated that Australia could redirect funds saved from not purchasing submarines into other defense capabilities, such as long-range anti-ship missiles, drones, loitering munitions, or B-21 bombers.

The CRS report cited statements from Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles and the Chief of Navy indicating Australia would make "no promises" regarding support in a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. It argued that selling Virginia-class submarines to Australia could convert them from assets available for a US-China crisis into assets that might not be available.

Additionally, the report noted that if Australia acquired its own nuclear-powered submarines, they would be conventionally armed, aligning with Australia's commitments as a non-nuclear weapon state under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Cybersecurity concerns were also raised, noting active attempts by "hackers linked to China" to penetrate Australian government and contractor systems, suggesting that sharing nuclear submarine technology could increase the "attack surface" for potential breaches.

Authored by Ronald O’Rourke, an analyst for naval affairs at the CRS, the report also presented arguments for upholding the existing AUKUS arrangement.

"It suggested that selling Virginia-class submarines to Australia would send a 'strong signal to China of the collective determination' of the US, UK, and Australia to counter China's military modernization."

This unprecedented sale, the report argued, would underscore this commitment. Furthermore, selling nuclear-powered submarines would accelerate the establishment of an Australian submarine fleet, providing China with an earlier "second allied decision-making centre" for attack submarine operations in the Indo-Pacific, which could enhance deterrence by complicating Chinese military planning. The report drew parallels to US assistance in establishing the nuclear submarine fleets of the UK and France in the 20th century. Australia has previously rejected proposals for a "division of labour" in lieu of acquiring its own submarines.

Challenges in US Submarine Production

The congressional report and US officials have highlighted ongoing challenges in US submarine shipbuilding.

• For the past 15 years, the US Navy has aimed to order two Virginia-class submarines annually. However, its shipyards have consistently produced only approximately 1.1 to 1.2 boats per year since 2022, leading to a growing backlog.
• The US fleet currently comprises 49 submarines, approximately 75% of its goal of 66 vessels.
• To meet its own requirements and supply Australia as per the AUKUS agreement, the US would need to increase its build rate to 2.33 boats per year.
• Existing US legislation prohibits the sale of any submarine to Australia if it would degrade US undersea capabilities, requiring presidential certification that the sale would not diminish the US Navy's fleet.

Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of War for Policy, questioned the feasibility of supplying Australia if American shipyards cannot meet existing production schedules for the U.S. Navy. Admiral Daryl Caudle, the Chief of Naval Operations, acknowledged production difficulties, stating that a "transformational improvement" equivalent to a "100 percent improvement" is required to achieve the target delivery pace for AUKUS obligations. He noted that the industrial base's capacity to meet these production requirements is currently under review by the U.S. Defense Department.

Responses from Australian and UK Officials

Australia's Defence Minister, Richard Marles, dismissed the CRS report as "commentary," reiterating that AUKUS is "full steam ahead." He cited the US President's stated commitment to the agreement, including the transfer of Virginia-class submarines. A spokesperson for the Australian Submarine Agency stated that AUKUS remains in the strategic interests of all three partners and that Australia's commitment is "unwavering." The spokesperson also confirmed that all partners are investing significantly in their industrial bases to ensure the success and timelines of the agreement, including the delivery of Virginia-class submarines.

Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull characterized the Australian government's stance as "an exercise of denial" regarding the agreement's progress. Turnbull, whose previous deal for French submarines was superseded by AUKUS, described the agreement as "lop-sided" in favor of the US.

"He argued that the US benefits from a submarine base and dockyard in Western Australia at Australia's expense, without a firm obligation to sell submarines unless the US Navy can spare them. According to Turnbull, if the US cannot provide submarines, it would not constitute reneging on the deal but rather operating within its terms, which he views as disadvantageous for Australia."

Greens Senator David Shoebridge referred to the deal as a "pantomime" and asserted that any nuclear submarines Australia obtains would be US-controlled and directed, potentially compromising Australian sovereignty to US interests. He suggested that the US's willingness to proceed with AUKUS, even under an "America first" approach, indicates its one-sided nature.

British Defence Secretary John Healey recently stated in Parliament that "Russia remains the most pressing and immediate threat to Britain," committing to meet any threat with "strength and resolve," as HMS Anson, reportedly the only active Astute-class submarine currently operational, commenced its journey to Australia.

Australian Commitments and Investments

To support the AUKUS initiatives, Australia has committed significant investments. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a $2.75 billion investment in a submarine construction yard at Osborne, Australia, as part of a broader $30 billion investment to enhance Australian submarine building capabilities. Additionally, Australia has invested approximately $4.6 billion to expand American shipbuilding capacity, intending to address production bottlenecks. Australia is also slated to receive ex-U.S. Navy Virginia-class submarines to familiarize its sailors with nuclear-powered submarine operations, followed by the future AUKUS-class submarines.