The Fourth-Down Dilemma: Analytics vs. Gut Feeling
A significant debate exists in football regarding coaching decisions on fourth downs, particularly in opponent territory. While some coaches frequently opt for field goals, others face critical decisions on whether to attempt a conversion.
Modern football play-calling has seen a notable increase in fourth-down attempts. Analytics suggest that converting on fourth down often benefits a team more than failing to convert harms it. This trend is evident in both college and professional football, prompting frequent discussions about the correctness of such decisions.
The Shifting Landscape of Fourth-Down Decisions
Recent examples highlight varying outcomes:
- The Denver Broncos failed to convert a fourth-and-1 attempt from the Patriots’ 14-yard line, contributing to their loss in the AFC Championship Game.
- The Indiana Hoosiers successfully converted a fourth-and-4 with a quarterback draw from Miami’s 12-yard line, leading to a crucial touchdown in their College Football Playoff national championship victory.
According to TruMedia data, NFL teams attempted to convert on nearly 34 percent of fourth-down opportunities in opponent territory in 2025, marking the highest rate of any season this century.
The Human Element: Coach Mike Martz's Perspective
Former NFL coach Mike Martz, known for the 'Greatest Show on Turf' offense, has critically assessed the over-reliance on analytics in these decisions.
"He stated that statistics are based on other teams, players, and situations, and that the human element and player performance are crucial."
Martz emphasized the psychological impact on an offense of failing to score after a long drive.
The Analytical Push: Why Go For It?
The mathematical rationale for going for it is based on the win probability gained from conversions outweighing the risk of turnover on downs. Changes to NFL kickoff rules in 2024, which now place average drive starts at the 30-yard line following kickoffs, further support this aggressive approach.
The argument suggests that the risk of failing a red zone fourth down is less detrimental than kicking a field goal, as a subsequent defensive stop could lead to regaining possession around midfield.
Balancing Risk and Reward
While kickers succeed on attempts within 35 yards approximately 97 percent of the time, teams convert fourth downs around 57 percent of the time. Despite the seemingly higher odds of kicking, analytics still favor going for it. Teams have also improved their fourth-down conversion rates in the red zone over the years.
In 2020, teams attempted 159 red zone fourth downs, converting 51 percent with an average line to gain of 2.4 yards. This season, teams attempted 237 red zone fourth downs, converting 57 percent with an average line to gain of 2.7 yards. This represents the highest frequency of red zone fourth-down attempts since TruMedia began tracking data in 2000.
Specific Team Approaches
The New England Patriots converted 83 percent of their red zone fourth-down attempts this year, while the Seattle Seahawks attempted only two, tying for the league lead in red zone field goals.
Martz's Nuanced Stance and Future Concerns
Despite his reservations, Martz believes going for it is appropriate in specific scenarios, such as in the fourth quarter or when exploiting opponent tendencies. He recounted a successful fourth-down play call during his time as offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears.
Martz acknowledged that analytics are likely to remain a significant factor in football coaching due to investment in analytics departments by team owners. However, he expressed concern that this trend diminishes the human element and strategic depth of the game.