Leaked US Draft Plan for Russia-Ukraine Peace Details Emerge
A draft peace plan concerning the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, reportedly originating from the United States, has been disclosed. The plan's provisions include the proposed transfer of currently Ukrainian-controlled areas within the Donetsk region to Russian de facto control and a reduction of Ukraine's armed forces to 600,000 personnel.
Key Proposals
The document outlines 28 points. Some proposals confirm Ukraine's sovereignty and suggest a "total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement" between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. It mentions "security guarantees" for Kyiv and proposes snap elections within 100 days. The plan suggests a "robust co-ordinated military response" in case of a future Russian invasion, along with the restoration of sanctions and the cancellation of any peace agreement.
Elections in Ukraine are currently not possible due to martial law. The document lacks specific details on the providers or robustness of the security guarantees, which do not equate to a NATO Article Five commitment.
Territory and Military Limitations
Proposals include Ukraine ceding unoccupied territory and reducing its military size. One provision states: "Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarised zone." This pertains to cities such as Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka.
Another proposal limits the "size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces... to 600,000 personnel." Ukraine's military had an estimated 880,000 active personnel in January, up from 250,000 in February 2022.
The draft also suggests "Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States." This phrasing would not require Ukraine or other countries to recognize Russian control legally, which could align with Ukraine's constitutional stance on its borders as "indivisible and inviolable." In Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, the front lines would be frozen, and Russia would relinquish other occupied areas.
Ukrainian representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn stated at the UN Security Council that there would "never be any recognition formal or otherwise of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as Russian" and that "Ukraine will not accept any limits on its rights to self defence or on the size or capabilities of our armed forces."
Ukraine's Future Alignment
The draft includes commitments regarding Ukraine's strategic future:
- "Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join Nato and Nato agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future."
- "Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will get short-term preferred market access to the European market while this issue is being evaluated."
Nato membership for Ukraine is not imminent, and Russia's position on Ukraine's EU candidacy has reportedly softened. The document suggests Kyiv would gain access to EU markets. Ukraine's constitution includes provisions for joining both the EU and Nato. Khrystyna Hayovyshyn also stated at the UN that Ukraine would "not tolerate any infringement on our sovereignty including our sovereign right to choose the alliances we want to join." Other proposals include Nato agreeing not to station troops in Ukraine, European fighter jets being stationed in Poland, and Kyiv committing to be a "non-nuclear state." This differs from potential Western plans involving the UK and France to help police a future agreement.
Russia's International Status
Several points address Russia's international reintegration, proposing "Russia to be re-integrated into the global economy" and invited back into the G8 group of powers. Russia was expelled from the G7 following the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Frozen Russian Assets
The draft proposes investing $100 billion of frozen Russian assets in "US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine," with the US receiving 50% of the profits. Europe would add $100 billion in investment for reconstruction. The total estimated cost for Ukraine's reconstruction earlier this year was $524 billion (€506 billion). Approximately €200 billion in frozen Russian assets are largely held by Euroclear in Belgium. The European Union is developing a plan to utilize these funds for financial and military support to Kyiv. The remaining frozen assets, under the draft, would go to a "US-Russian investment vehicle," providing a financial benefit to the US.
Omissions in the Plan
The plan does not require limitations on Ukraine's military weaponry or arms industry, though it states that if Ukraine fires a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg, the security guarantee would be voided. There are no restrictions on long-range weapons Ukraine is developing, such as its Flamingo and Long Neptune missiles.
Status of the Draft Plan
Reports indicate a US preference for an "aggressive timeline" for the draft's acceptance, with some suggesting Ukraine has until Thanksgiving for agreement. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, involved in the drafting, described it as "a list of potential ideas for ending this war." German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated he does not view the 28 points as a definitive plan, following discussions with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, another official involved. Details initially leaked to US websites reportedly differed in later versions. As of Friday morning, the European Union and the Russian foreign ministry reported they had not officially received the plan.