Thailand Elections: Bhumjaithai Leads, Coalition Talks Loom Amidst Reform Push
Thailand has recently concluded a general election, with preliminary results indicating a strong performance by the conservative Bhumjaithai Party. Led by incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, the party secured the most seats. The reformist People's Party, despite performing strongly in key areas, has conceded defeat and stated its intention not to join a Bhumjaithai-led government.
As no single party is projected to win an outright majority, the formation of a coalition government is highly anticipated. Concurrently, voters also participated in a constitutional referendum, with early counts suggesting approval for a process to redraft the 2017 military-backed constitution. This election unfolded against a backdrop of slow economic growth, persistent political instability, and ongoing border tensions.
Election Overview and Preliminary Results
The general election took place on Sunday, with vote counting commencing on the same day. Approximately 53 million registered voters were eligible to cast ballots for representatives across more than 50 contesting parties. The primary contest unfolded between three major political entities: the conservative Bhumjaithai Party, the reformist People's Party, and the populist Pheu Thai Party.
Preliminary figures released by the election commission, with approximately 95 percent of polling stations reporting, indicated the following seat counts for the 500-member lower house:
- Bhumjaithai Party: Approximately 192 seats
- People's Party: 117 seats
- Pheu Thai Party: 74 seats
A simple majority of 251 seats is required to form a new government and elect a prime minister. Given these preliminary results, no single party is expected to achieve an outright majority, making a coalition government a necessity.
Government Formation and Party Responses
Following the preliminary results, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul declared his party's victory, stating it belonged to all Thais, and expressed confidence in forming a government. He reiterated his commitment to the nation's monarchy and military.
Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, leader of the People's Party, acknowledged his party's unlikelihood of winning based on initial counts and conceded defeat. He stated that the People's Party would not join a Bhumjaithai-led government and would instead serve as the opposition.
The People's Party performed strongly in Bangkok, sweeping all 33 constituencies. The Pheu Thai Party, associated with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, finished third. Its future political trajectory remains uncertain after a period of dominant influence in Thai politics.
Key Political Contenders and Platforms
Bhumjaithai Party
Led by incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, the Bhumjaithai Party is perceived as aligned with the royalist-military establishment. Its platform emphasized nationalism, national security, and economic stimulus, particularly in the context of Thailand's border dispute with Cambodia. The party reportedly utilized traditional patronage politics and grassroots organizing, especially in the northeastern region. Anutin assumed the premiership in September of the previous year following a cabinet reshuffle and dissolved parliament in December to initiate new elections after a no-confidence vote threat.
People's Party
The People's Party, led by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, is a reformist group that succeeded the Move Forward Party. The Move Forward Party, which won the most votes in the 2023 election, was subsequently blocked from forming a government and dissolved by the constitutional court. The People's Party's platform includes proposed structural reforms for the military, police, and judiciary, and advocates for drafting a new, more democratic constitution, and implementing anti-corruption measures.
While it previously advocated for amending the lese-majesty law, the party de-emphasized this policy due to legal restrictions, shifting focus towards economic issues. The party's agenda has raised concerns among conservative and royalist groups. Prior to the election, 44 of its members were barred from contesting, and one candidate faced a potential disqualification for alleged corrupt practices, which the candidate denied, citing political motivation.
Pheu Thai Party
The Pheu Thai Party is associated with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Parties supported by Thaksin have historically experienced electoral success followed by removal from power by conservative courts and state agencies. The party's current campaign focused on economic revival and populist initiatives, such as cash handouts, with Yodchanan Wongsawat, Thaksin's nephew, serving as its prime ministerial candidate. Its influence reportedly waned after the removal of its candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office last year.
Constitutional Referendum
Alongside the general election, voters participated in a referendum on whether to replace Thailand's 2017 military-drafted constitution. The referendum aimed to authorize parliament to initiate a formal constitutional drafting process, which would involve multiple subsequent stages and further referendums for adoption. Pro-democracy groups advocate for a constitutional rewrite to diminish the influence of unelected institutions such as the military and judiciary.
Early counts from the election commission showed voters backing the referendum by a margin of nearly two to one.
Political Context and Voter Concerns
The election took place amidst a period of significant political instability in Thailand, which has seen three prime ministers in the last three years, with two removed by court rulings. The country has a history of military coups, street protests, and frequent interventions by the constitutional court and other agencies, leading to the banning of political parties and their leaders.
Only one elected government has completed a full four-year term in the last 25 years.
Thailand's economy is currently experiencing slow growth, with a projected GDP growth of 2 percent, and the critical tourism sector faces challenges. The country has also been dealing with tensions and border clashes with Cambodia, which have incurred substantial costs.
Voters expressed concerns over the cost of living, the economy, and the need for political stability. Many voters in Bangkok conveyed a desire for political change, while others emphasized the need for a strong leader to safeguard national sovereignty. Public skepticism and a perceived disconnect between politicians and public concerns were also noted, alongside a history of unfulfilled promises by elected parties.