State and local election officials across the United States are preparing for the upcoming midterm elections, considering various potential federal actions and interventions. These preparations occur as political scientists hold differing views on the current state of U.S. democracy, with some expressing concerns about autocratic tendencies while others highlight the system's resilience.
Federal Authority and Election Processes
State and local election officials, representing both major political parties, describe their preparations for the midterms as similar to planning for natural disasters, considering various scenarios.
Former President Trump has issued an executive order aimed at altering election systems, which courts have largely blocked. Statements from the White House have indicated ongoing work on new executive orders, with one reportedly targeting mail voting. Mr. Trump has also mentioned a desire to ban certain voting machines.
Election officials generally state that the President lacks the legal authority to implement such changes, as the U.S. Constitution grants states control over election processes, with Congress setting guidelines for federal races.
Cleta Mitchell, an attorney who advised Mr. Trump in 2020, suggested a national emergency declaration as a strategy to implement election changes. Election experts indicate no legal basis for Mitchell's theory, though some voting officials have discussed this scenario. Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) stated he would force a Senate vote to block any such declaration if it were made. Mr. Trump utilized presidential emergency powers more frequently than previous modern presidents.
Potential Federal Personnel Deployment
Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs, a Democrat, indicated a shift in his view regarding the potential deployment of federal troops at polling places, citing past National Guard deployments as a factor in his current consideration of this possibility.
Prior to the 2020 election, Mr. Trump expressed a desire for federal law enforcement to patrol voting locations. Additionally, former adviser Steve Bannon has voiced hopes for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to patrol polling places during the midterms to identify undocumented migrants. Legal experts consider such federal intervention illegal. Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon suggested that a clear federal statement disavowing such actions would be beneficial for election officials.
White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson characterized inquiries about such scenarios as "baseless conspiracy theories and Democrat talking points," without directly stating whether federal agents would be sent to voting locations. She reiterated that the president has authority to send federal personnel to localities to address violent crime. Separately, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated she had not heard the president discuss such a plan, and federal law prohibits it. Brendan Nyhan, a professor at Dartmouth College, expressed concern that deploying ICE could reduce participation among people of color and naturalized citizens due to fear of harassment.
Election Integrity and Data Management
Election officials report ongoing challenges in guiding communities to reliable sources for election information. Concerns have been raised about individuals appointed to prominent government roles who have previously disseminated information about elections that officials describe as false.
One such appointment is Heather Honey, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Elections Integrity at the Department of Homeland Security. Officials note her past work with Cleta Mitchell in spreading election conspiracy theories. Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs commented on this appointment. Similarly, some officials at the Department of Justice reportedly have a history of expressing skepticism about election outcomes.
The Department of Justice has made requests for access to voting machines, old ballots, and large quantities of voter data. For example, a consultant in Colorado, who some clerks stated claimed association with the White House, contacted clerks regarding access to voting machines. The White House denied authorizing these specific requests. Separately, a Department of Justice official contacted Missouri clerks with similar inquiries. These requests were declined by the clerks.
The Trump administration has developed a searchable national citizenship database and has encouraged states to use it to identify non-citizens on voter rolls. While some Republican election officials have utilized this system, others, including some Republicans and their Democratic counterparts, have expressed hesitation. Concerns include the system's effectiveness, the handling of voter data, and legality under state laws.
The administration continues to investigate voter rolls and claims of widespread non-citizen voting. The Department of Justice recently sued eight states (states Mr. Trump lost in 2020) to compel them to provide their voter rolls. Al Schmidt, Republican Secretary of State of Pennsylvania, characterized this as an attempt to consolidate and overreach at the federal level, stating that states manage elections in the U.S. Kim Scheppele, a Princeton University sociologist, compared these lawsuits to tactics used by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government.
Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities
Federal government involvement in election-related cybersecurity has decreased since Mr. Trump took office. The Department of Homeland Security reduced staff focused on election security and ended funding for a partnership that facilitated threat information sharing among local election offices.
Wesley Wilcox, a Republican election supervisor in Marion County, Florida, suggested that these reductions could increase the vulnerability of smaller counties to cyberattacks from foreign adversaries. Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs noted that two years prior, DHS notified him of a county hack, leading to immediate state response. He expressed uncertainty about receiving similar notification under current circumstances. Adrian Fontes, Democratic Secretary of State of Arizona, stated he did not contact DHS' cyber agency after an online candidate portal was hacked, citing a lack of confidence in the agency's collaboration capacity or prioritization of national security.
Academic Perspectives on U.S. Democracy
Political scientists hold differing views on the state of democracy in the United States ahead of midterm elections. Some researchers express concern that the country is moving toward or has reached a form of autocracy, while others argue that the U.S. system demonstrates resilience.
Perspectives on Democratic ErosionStaffan I. Lindberg, director of Sweden's V-Dem Institute, states that the U.S. has become an "electoral autocracy." Steven Levitsky, a professor at Harvard University, suggests the U.S. has entered a "mild form of competitive authoritarianism." Levitsky describes this as a system where elections occur, but the ruling party employs tactics such as criticizing the press, disenfranchising voters, and threatening critics to gain an electoral advantage. Levitsky cited two actions in September as examples:
- The Trump administration reportedly threatened ABC's parent company, Disney, following comments made by Jimmy Kimmel.
- President Trump proposed using U.S. cities as training grounds for troops, stating, "We're under invasion from within."
Conversely, other scholars do not describe Trump as a would-be autocrat. Jonathan Turley, a professor at George Washington University Law School, notes that the Trump administration has raised objections regarding liberal bias in news organizations and universities. Kurt Weyland, who researches democracy and authoritarianism at the University of Texas at Austin, expresses confidence in the U.S. system's ability to withstand attempts to expand executive power. Weyland noted that while Mr. Trump initially faced limited opposition in his second term, this has changed:
- Jimmy Kimmel, who was temporarily removed from air, later returned and continued to comment on Mr. Trump.
- Attempts at mass redistricting to influence elections have reportedly not achieved their desired outcomes.
- Public response to federal agents shooting two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis has been suggested to limit future aggressive tactics.
The upcoming midterm elections are widely seen as a significant test for American democracy.