Russian forces are employing hybrid warfare tactics against EU and NATO territories, encompassing surveillance, airspace violations, psychological operations, and digital activities. These incidents have been reported by military personnel and officials across the Baltic region.
Incidents and Observations
One German soldier deployed in Lithuania reported receiving a phone call where a recent private conversation was played back to him by an unknown caller. Joshua Krebs, in his book "Inside Bundeswehr," described this as intimidating surveillance.
European armed forces, including Germany's Bundeswehr, have observed similar hybrid activities.
- Drones have been used for alleged surveillance of sensitive defense systems, such as the Arrow 3 air defense system, and during military exercises like Germany's Battletank Brigade 45 in Lithuania.
- A Russian reconnaissance aircraft was detected in Belarusian airspace during the Bundeswehr exercise Iron Wolf in Lithuania. Germany's Army Inspector General, Carsten Breuer, called this evidence of a real threat to Lithuania.
- German Federal Defence Minister Boris Pistorius emphasized that hybrid warfare is a significant concern for Lithuania and the broader Baltic region, citing provocative airspace incursions.
Airspace Violations
Pistorius referred to an October 2025 incident where two Russian fighter jets briefly entered Lithuanian airspace for approximately 18 seconds before being escorted out by NATO aircraft. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described this as a Russian provocation. The jets are believed to have originated from Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, which borders Lithuania.
The airspace over the Baltic region is considered sensitive due to its proximity to Russian territory and is under constant NATO surveillance and protection. Germany, Spain, and the UK currently lead the mission to police Baltic airspace. Germany is also supporting Lithuanian airspace protection with a mobile air force command post from January to March of the current year.
Ground Incursions
In December of last year, Russian border guards reportedly crossed into NATO territory in Estonia without authorization. Estonia responded through diplomatic channels, seeking an explanation from Moscow and arranging a meeting with Russian border officials.
Months prior, a group of armed men in military-style uniforms, lacking insignia, were observed near the Estonian border. These events evoke comparisons to the "little green men" who appeared on Ukraine's Crimean peninsula in 2014, preceding its annexation by Moscow. Experts largely viewed the October incident in Estonia as a psychological tactic rather than a direct military threat, signaling Russia's presence to maintain heightened alert levels.
Legal Ambiguity
Hybrid warfare often operates within a legal grey area, making it challenging to determine when an action constitutes an attack, justifies a response, or what form such a response should take.
A significant difficulty is the lack of clear proof regarding impact and responsibility. Many hybrid activities, unlike direct airspace incursions, cannot be attributed to a single actor.
Under international law, Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits states from threatening or using force. However, hybrid activities do not automatically meet the threshold of an "armed attack" required to trigger a state's right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Each case necessitates individual assessment, with different legal frameworks potentially applying based on the incident's nature and severity. International law, including the principle of non-interference in internal affairs, remains relevant.