Thanksgiving Travel Forecasts Project Record Numbers and Detail Peak Congestion Times
A record number of individuals are projected to travel within the U.S. for the Thanksgiving holiday period, from November 25 to December 1. AAA reports that approximately 82 million people are expected to travel at least 50 miles, representing an increase of 1.6 million compared to the previous year.
Modes of Transportation
- Automobile Travel: An estimated 73.2 million individuals are expected to travel by car, marking a 1.8% increase from last year's holiday period.
- Air Travel: Projections indicate 6 million people will travel by plane domestically, a 2% increase. However, this number could fluctuate due to recent flight delays and cancellations, with travelers potentially opting for alternative transportation. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had previously lifted a directive for emergency flight reductions. Aviation experts have noted that a full return to normal operations may take time, though industry leaders anticipate a normalization before the holiday peak. Weather conditions in certain regions may also contribute to flight disruptions. The FAA forecasts the upcoming holiday rush to be the busiest for air travel in 15 years, with Tuesday identified as the peak flying day.
- Other Modes: Travel via bus, train, and cruise is projected to increase by 8.5% this year, with an anticipated rise in last-minute bookings for bus and train services. Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel, stated that individuals are willing to adapt plans for family visits and social gatherings.
Road Traffic Congestion Forecast
INRIX, a transportation analytics firm, has identified the following peak congestion periods and recommended travel times for major metropolitan areas:
- Departure:
- Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons are expected to be the most congested for drivers.
- Optimal travel times to avoid backups are before noon on Tuesday and before 11 a.m. on Wednesday.
- Thanksgiving Day is projected to have minimal road traffic impacts.
- Return:
- Travelers are advised to depart before noon on any day except Monday.
- The Sunday following Thanksgiving is likely to experience heavy traffic throughout most of the day.
- On Monday, the best time for return travel is after 8:00 p.m.
Weather Outlook
The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts potential weather impacts during the holiday travel period:
- Monday through Wednesday: Rain is expected to move eastward across the country, extending from Southern Texas to Minnesota.
- Thanksgiving Day: Conditions are anticipated to be drier across much of the U.S. Temperatures are projected to be colder than average for a majority of the country on Thanksgiving morning, with central U.S. areas experiencing temperatures in the teens.
- Black Friday: Warmer than average temperatures are expected from the Great Plains to the West Coast, with cities like Denver, Colorado, potentially reaching the mid-50s.
- Lake-Effect Snow: Areas across the central and eastern U.S., particularly near the Great Lakes, may experience lake-effect snow showers.
- Post-Holiday Return: Friday and Saturday are expected to offer generally favorable weather for returning travelers across a large portion of the country. However, a new storm system is predicted to develop over the weekend.
- Weekend Storm System:
- Saturday and Sunday: Heavy snow may affect western Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin.
- Sunday: Increased chances of rain are forecast from Texas northward into Missouri and Illinois.