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Southern Transitional Council Announces, Then Dissolution Amidst Escalating Tensions and Internal Divisions

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The Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist movement in Yemen, initially announced a constitution for an independent South Yemen, calling upon other factions to accept the move. This declaration, made on a Friday, coincided with renewed military engagements in the Hadramout province and heightened diplomatic tensions involving Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Days later, Abdulrahman Jalal al-Sebaihi, the STC's secretary-general, announced the council's dissolution, scheduled to take effect that same Friday. This decision followed weeks of instability in southern governorates, accusations of treason against STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi, and reports of his departure from Yemen.

Declaration of a Southern Constitution

On a Friday, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) unveiled a 30-article document, which it termed a constitution for an independent "State of South Arabia." The proposed state would encompass the territory of the former People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, which existed from 1967 to 1990.

STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi stated in a video message that this constitution would be effective for two years. Following this period, a referendum would be conducted to ascertain the right to self-determination for the southern populace. During the two-year interim, al-Zubaidi proposed dialogue between "relevant parties" in north and south Yemen to establish a framework for guaranteeing the rights of the southern population. He also stated that "all options remain open" should other factions reject this proposal or initiate military actions.

This declaration followed events a month prior, where STC-linked forces gained control of two southern provinces and occupied the Presidential Palace in Aden, the primary southern city. The internationally recognized Yemeni government, previously based in Aden, subsequently relocated to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The United Arab Emirates' Foreign Ministry issued a statement confirming its approach to the situation "with restraint, coordination, and a deliberate commitment to de-escalation, guided by a foreign policy that consistently prioritizes regional stability over impulsive action."

Military Engagements in Hadramout and Regional Tensions

Concurrent with the constitutional announcement, Saudi warplanes conducted strikes on STC camps and military positions in Hadramout province on the same Friday. This occurred as Saudi-backed forces, identified as National Shield Forces, attempted to seize these facilities. Salem al-Khanbashi, the newly appointed governor of Hadramout by Yemen's internationally recognized government and commander of Saudi-led forces in the province, described the operation as a "pre-emptive measure to remove weapons" and "not a declaration of war." He also stated that his forces had secured a significant military base.

Earlier, the STC had taken control of Hadramout and the neighboring al-Mahra province. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen had demanded the withdrawal of STC-linked Southern Shield forces from these governorates as part of de-escalation efforts, but the STC reportedly refused to comply.

Mohamed al-Nakib, a spokesperson for the STC-backed forces, reported fatalities from the strikes, although independent verification was not immediately available. Mohammed Abdulmalik, the STC head for Wadi Hadramout and Hadramout desert, reported seven airstrikes struck al-Khasah camp, resulting in seven fatalities and over 20 injuries. Al-Nakib also stated that "intense clashes" occurred between STC forces and the National Shield Forces in various parts of Hadramout. A Saudi military source indicated that operations would continue until the STC withdrew from both Hadramout and al-Mahra.

Regional tensions escalated further due to the involvement of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who have historically supported differing factions within Yemeni government-held territories, leading to increased friction between the two Gulf nations. Amr al-Bidh, the STC's foreign affairs representative, stated on X that Riyadh had "knowingly misled the international community" by announcing a "peaceful operation" immediately followed by airstrikes.

Diplomatic Standoffs and Airspace Restrictions

Saudi Ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed al-Jaber, stated on X that Saudi Arabia had engaged in "all efforts with STC" for weeks to "stop the escalation" and urged separatists to leave Hadramout and Mahra, but faced "continued intransigence and rejection from Aidarous al-Zubaidi." Al-Jaber also claimed the STC prevented a Saudi delegation's jet from landing in Aden, despite prior agreement.

Yemen's Transportation Ministry, which is aligned with the STC, announced that Saudi Arabia had imposed new requirements, mandating that all flights to and from Aden International Airport undergo inspection in Jeddah. The ministry denounced this decision, for which there was no confirmation from Saudi authorities. A spokesperson for the transport ministry indicated that all flights to and from the UAE were suspended until Saudi Arabia reverses these reported measures. Flightradar24 data indicated no aircraft activity at Aden airport for over 24 hours.

The UAE announced its complete withdrawal of its remaining counterterrorism units from Yemen early on Saturday, following prior indications of such a move. This withdrawal occurred after a reported Saudi-led coalition strike on an Emirati weapons shipment.

STC Dissolution Announcement and Leadership Departure

Days after the constitutional declaration, Abdulrahman Jalal al-Sebaihi, the STC's secretary-general, announced that the Southern Transitional Council and its associated institutions were scheduled for dissolution starting that Friday. He attributed the decision to internal disagreements and increasing regional pressure, stating that the council's continued existence no longer served its purpose, particularly given its non-participation in military operations against Hadramout and al-Mahra, which he said harmed southern unity and relations with the Saudi-led coalition. Al-Sebaihi announced the closure of all STC agencies and offices, with members focusing on preparing for a Saudi-hosted conference on southern issues.

However, STC spokesperson Anwar al-Tamimi indicated internal disagreement, stating on X that council decisions require a full council vote under its president.

The dissolution announcement followed reports that STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi had departed Yemen for the United Arab Emirates, via Somalia. The Presidential Leadership Council accused al-Zubaidi of treason, citing his reported refusal to attend meetings in Saudi Arabia and his deployment of STC forces to his village. A curfew previously imposed in Aden due to security concerns was lifted on the Friday of the dissolution announcement.

Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman and Ambassador Mohamed al-Jaber welcomed the STC's decision, viewing it as a commitment to the southern cause and a step towards a "real path" for the southern issue. Yemen's Shura Council, backed by the internationally recognized government, also endorsed the decision, emphasizing that the southern issue requires a comprehensive political process rather than unilateral actions.

Broader Context of Yemen's Conflict

These developments underscore the fragility of alliances among forces fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels in northern Yemen. Yemen has been embroiled in a civil war for over a decade, characterized by complex sectarian and tribal grievances, alongside the involvement of regional powers. The Iran-aligned Houthis control the most populated northern regions, including the capital Sana'a. The conflict has resulted in over 150,000 deaths and created a severe humanitarian crisis.