Thanksgiving meal costs are projected to be lower this year compared to the previous year, according to recent analyses.
Declining Feast Costs
A survey conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation indicates that the average cost for a traditional Thanksgiving feast is approximately 5% lower this year than in the previous year. This reduction is primarily attributed to a significant decrease in turkey prices.
Wells Fargo's own forecast also noted savings on Thanksgiving food prices, though the projected decrease was not as substantial as the Farm Bureau's findings.
Turkey Price Factors
Turkey, typically the most expensive component of the Thanksgiving meal, has seen a notable price reduction. The Farm Bureau reported that the cost of whole frozen turkeys decreased by 16% from last year. Michael Swanson, a food economist at Wells Fargo, attributed this to a surplus of food in the United States, specifically record harvests of corn and soybeans, which lower the cost of turkey feed.
Concerns regarding a potential spike in turkey prices due to an avian flu outbreak were mitigated as major grocery chains had pre-negotiated prices with turkey producers. Additionally, many retailers offer deep discounts on Thanksgiving turkeys as a strategy to attract customers. For instance, one Giant supermarket advertised frozen turkeys for 27 cents per pound, contingent on additional purchases, a price point noted by Swanson as significantly below production cost.
Other Staples and Price Variations
The decrease in wheat prices has led to lower costs for items such as stuffing, dinner rolls, and pie crusts.
Conversely, sweet potato prices are anticipated to be higher this year, partly due to hurricane damage in North Carolina, a major sweet potato producing region. While fresh vegetable prices generally increased according to the Farm Bureau's data, cranberry prices have declined.
Consumer Purchasing and Broader Economic Context
Consumers often select store-brand products over national brands to save money. However, the price difference between these options has narrowed in recent years, reflecting increased cost-consciousness among consumers and national brands' efforts to remain competitive.
Despite year-over-year price reductions for some Thanksgiving staples, overall food costs remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. For comparison, beef prices have risen by nearly 15% this year, making alternative holiday menus, such as a prime rib dinner, considerably more expensive.