The National Basketball Association (NBA) is actively pursuing significant changes to its draft lottery system and penalty structures in response to growing concerns over teams intentionally losing games, a practice known as tanking. Commissioner Adam Silver has expressed the league's commitment to addressing the issue, with various proposals under consideration from both the NBA league office and the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA).
These discussions follow recent incidents of teams being fined for player resting policy violations, underscoring the perceived urgency of maintaining game integrity, particularly in the current landscape of legalized sports gambling.
League Acknowledges Escalating Problem
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has stated that the current system is "not working" and that tanking behavior has worsened, becoming "worse than we've seen in recent memory." The league's annual draft system, which grants teams with poorer records higher chances to select top amateur talent, has created a clear incentive for teams not in playoff contention to strategically aim for a worse record.
This strategy is particularly prevalent leading up to the 2026 NBA draft class, which is anticipated to feature multiple high-tier prospects. Concerns have also been raised regarding the connection between tanking, undisclosed player absences, and gambling, following allegations involving inside information about players being held out of games.
Recent Incidents and Penalties
The NBA has issued several fines related to player resting policies and conduct detrimental to the league:
- Utah Jazz: Fined $500,000 for resting star players Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. in the fourth quarters of games against the Orlando Magic (February 7) and the Miami Heat (February 9). Jazz owner Ryan Smith publicly disagreed with the fine. In a game against the Magic, the Jazz lost a 17-point lead after benching key players in the fourth quarter, drawing public commentary. Jaren Jackson Jr. was subsequently ruled out for the season due to a knee condition, with the team stating he played under a minutes restriction prior to his season-ending decision. Coach Will Hardy cited minutes restrictions for player absences. The Jazz had previously been fined $100,000 for a similar violation last year.
- Indiana Pacers: Fined $100,000 for resting Pascal Siakam and two other starters in a game against the Jazz (February 3), despite them being medically cleared to play.
- Dallas Mavericks: Received a $750,000 fine two years prior for resting key players to protect a draft pick.
NBA insider reports suggest approximately one-third of the league is believed to be engaging in tanking, with teams such as the Wizards, Kings, Nets, Mavericks, Bucks, Grizzlies, and Bulls identified as recently demonstrating such tendencies by resting key players due to injuries.
Proposed Solutions by the NBA League Office
Commissioner Silver has informed general managers that reforms are planned for next season. During recent Board of Governors meetings, the NBA presented three conceptual ideas to modify and expand the NBA Draft Lottery and strengthen anti-tanking measures. These ideas are conceptual and not formal proposals for an immediate vote, with owners potentially combining elements from different concepts.
Common Elements across Proposals
All three concepts propose expanding the lottery to include between 18 and 22 teams and flattening the lottery odds. The plans also allow for potential stricter penalties for teams that manipulate lineups or engage in tanking.
Specific Lottery Concepts
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Concept 1 (18 Teams):
- Expands the lottery to include the 10 teams missing the postseason and the eight play-in teams.
- The 10 teams not in the play-in would each have an 8% chance of winning the top pick.
- The other eight teams would have 5%, 3%, or 2% chances based on their regular season finish.
- The lottery would draw the top four draft spots, with subsequent picks ordered by teams' descending records.
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Concept 2 (22 Teams):
- Expands the lottery to include the 10 teams missing the postseason, the eight play-in teams, and the four teams eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
- Teams would be ranked by their record over the last two seasons.
- Teams finishing below a specified minimum win total would have their record adjusted to that minimum for lottery purposes, aiming to remove the incentive to lose too many games.
- The top four spots would be drawn, followed by picks ordered by record.
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Concept 3 (18 Teams):
- Expands the lottery to include the 10 teams missing the postseason and the eight play-in teams.
- The five teams with the worst records would each have an 11% chance of securing the top pick, with other teams' odds decreasing.
- Two lottery drawings would occur: the first for the top five picks, and a second for the remaining 13 teams.
- If any of the five worst-record teams did not secure a top-five pick, they could not fall below the 10th pick.
Potential Stricter Penalties
The league intends to increase the commissioner's authority to penalize teams for roster manipulation. Punishments discussed include:
- Moving a team's draft pick to the end of the lottery or the end of the first round (30th spot).
- Removing a team's draft pick entirely.
- Reducing a team's lottery odds.
- Imposing multi-million dollar fines.
Other Ideas Under Consideration
Various other proposals have been discussed by analysts and within the league, including:
- Limiting protections on traded draft picks.
- Preventing a team from picking in the top four of the draft in consecutive years.
- Freezing lottery odds at a specific date before the season concludes.
- Allocating lottery odds based on a two-year performance window.
- Disallowing teams from picking in the top four after reaching the conference finals.
- Abolishing the draft entirely to allow players to sign with any team.
- Implementing a "Wheel" system where teams rotate through all 30 draft slots over a 30-year period.
- Using three-year records instead of a single season to determine lottery odds.
NBPA's Proposed Anti-Tanking Strategy
The National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) has presented its own three-pronged strategy to the NBA, aiming to deter tanking before the upcoming season.
1. Adjusting Draft Lottery Odds
- The NBPA generally supports the league's proposal to expand the draft lottery to 18 teams, incorporating the four play-in teams.
- However, the union proposes specific modifications:
- Reduce the odds for the bottom 10 teams to 7% (instead of 8%) for the top pick.
- Suggest flat odds of 3.75% for teams ranked 11 through 18 in the lottery, rather than descending odds.
2. Strengthening Tanking Penalties
- The NBPA supports the NBA's interest in increasing its authority to impose penalties on teams that manipulate player availability and rotations to intentionally lose games.
- Key members advocate for additional penalties, including moving a team's draft pick (to the end of the lottery or the end of the first round), removing a team's draft pick entirely, reducing a team's lottery odds, and imposing larger fines.
3. Implementing Financial Incentives and Disincentives
- A distinct proposal from the NBPA suggests that teams performing better in the regular season should receive larger portions of the NBA's national television revenue. This system is similar to "merit payments" used in the Premier League.
- This particular change would represent a more significant shift compared to altering draft lottery rules and would conflict with the NBA’s existing revenue sharing policies, indicating a potentially lower likelihood of adoption.
Stakeholder Perspectives and Future Outlook
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has stated that the weighted draft lottery system implemented in 2019, which flattened odds, may have inadvertently exacerbated the problem by encouraging more teams to aim for the lottery rather than just the absolute bottom spot.
Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green has expressed support for flattening lottery odds across all participating teams, viewing it as the most effective fix and suggesting that other punitive measures might remove a legitimate path to improvement for struggling teams.
The dialogue surrounding tanking is considered significant, particularly with the expanding landscape of legalized sports gambling, where maintaining the integrity of games is essential to avoid potential regulatory or legal consequences. The phenomenon of tanking is also present in other sports leagues, such as the NFL.
The NBA’s Board of Governors is expected to vote on these proposals before the upcoming NBA Draft.