A recent UN review indicates that only 64 countries have submitted new carbon reduction plans, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), ahead of the upcoming COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil. These submissions represent approximately 30% of global emissions. The current pledges are projected to result in a 10% reduction in global carbon dioxide emissions by 2035, a figure scientists deem insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5C. The UN previously stated that a 57% cut by 2035 is required to maintain the 1.5C target.
Status of National Climate Pledges
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, signatory countries are obligated to submit updated carbon-cutting plans every five years, outlining their commitments for the subsequent decade. As of this review, 64 countries have provided new pledges. The UN review also incorporates future plan statements from China and the European Union made in September.
Projected Emissions Reductions
Based on the submitted and indicated plans, global carbon dioxide emissions are projected to decrease by approximately 10% by 2035. This projected reduction contrasts with scientific requirements for limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C. Scientists indicate that significantly steeper cuts, specifically up to 57% by 2035, are necessary to achieve this target, as outlined by the UN last year.
Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation, stated that while progress is being made, the pace is too slow, highlighting the discrepancy between climate ambition and implementation.
The 1.5C Global Warming Threshold
The 1.5C limit, established during the Paris Agreement, is identified as a critical threshold for avoiding the most severe impacts of climate change. Scientific assessments in 2018 outlined substantial benefits associated with restricting global temperature increases to 1.5C compared to 2C. Exceeding the 1.5C limit is associated with an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and storms, greater damage to coral reefs, and heightened risks to human health and livelihoods, according to UN scientists.
For the first time, the global temperature rise surpassed 1.5C for a full year in 2024. UN leaders have expressed that the permanent breaching of this threshold is anticipated by the early 2030s under current emission rates. UN Secretary-General António Guterres indicated last week that containing global warming below 1.5C in the immediate future is not feasible, suggesting an inevitable period of overshoot above this temperature.
Potential for Further Submissions and Future Outlook
The UN report also noted several positive indicators. A significant number of additional countries are expected to submit their climate plans during the COP30 summit in Brazil. Major carbon emitters, including India and Indonesia, have not yet presented their plans but are likely to do so during the summit, potentially influencing overall projections for 2035.
Experts anticipate that some countries may exceed their stated emission reduction targets. For example, Todd Stern, former US Special Envoy for climate change, remarked that China frequently surpasses its announced climate goals.
The UN maintains confidence that global emissions will likely peak and begin to decline in the coming years, marking a shift not observed since the Industrial Revolution. Existing plans are seen by the UN as providing pathways toward achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century. Net-zero emissions involve balancing human-produced greenhouse gases with amounts actively removed from the atmosphere.
It is noted that the UN's assessment of emission cuts includes the planned US pledge submitted under President Biden. Despite President Donald Trump's stated intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the withdrawal process is not complete, and thus, US plans remain incorporated into the UN's calculations.