Zelensky Meets European Leaders Amid US-Backed Peace Efforts for Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with European leaders in London to discuss ongoing peace negotiations for the conflict in Ukraine and future security arrangements. These high-level discussions occurred as the United States advanced a draft peace proposal aimed at resolving the conflict, leading to varied reactions and concerns among the parties involved regarding territorial concessions, security guarantees, and the future of key infrastructure.

High-Level Meetings in London

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held meetings with European leaders, including British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, in London on Monday. The discussions at No 10 Downing Street focused on ongoing peace negotiations related to the conflict and mechanisms to deter potential future aggression.

Prime Minister Starmer stated that Ukraine requires "hard-edged security guarantees" and should have the autonomy to determine its own future without external conditions. German Chancellor Merz expressed some skepticism regarding specific details from the US side of negotiations while emphasizing the importance of continued discussion.

Context of US-Backed Peace Efforts

The London meetings followed recent talks in Florida, where Ukraine's chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, engaged with US officials, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, regarding a US-backed draft peace proposal.

US President Donald Trump commented on Sunday that President Zelensky had reportedly not yet reviewed the proposal, which had been revised in Miami. Trump stated that he believed Russia was "fine with it," but was unsure of Zelensky's position. In response, President Zelensky indicated he anticipated a briefing from Umerov upon his arrival in London or Brussels. He characterized earlier discussions with Witkoff and Kushner as "constructive, though not easy," noting that "some issues can only be discussed in person." Special envoy Witkoff also held five hours of in-person discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow the previous week. Keith Kellogg, Trump's outgoing special envoy for Ukraine, indicated that a deal was nearing completion, but specific elements remained under discussion.

Key Sticking Points in Negotiations

Negotiations for a resolution to the conflict continue to address several complex issues, which US President Trump identified as "one or two very thorny, very tough issues."

• US Proposal: A US-backed proposal reportedly includes provisions for Ukraine to withdraw forces from eastern regions partially occupied by Russia, in exchange for Russian withdrawals elsewhere and a cessation of hostilities.
• Russia's Position: Russian President Vladimir Putin has maintained a demand for the entire Donbas industrial region, which includes most of the Luhansk region and over 75% of Donetsk. Russia's objectives in this region reportedly include the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Putin stated that if Ukrainian authorities do not seek a peaceful settlement, Russia would resolve issues by military means. Kremlin envoy Yuri Ushakov suggested the possibility of no Russian or Ukrainian troops in Donbas, but affirmed the territory would be part of the Russian Federation.
• Ukraine's Position: President Zelensky has stated that Ukrainian forces cannot withdraw from Donbas, citing legal obligations and the presence of approximately 300,000 residents in the area.
• Ukrainian Proposal: Ukraine proposed creating a demilitarized or free economic zone in the Donbas region, to be policed by Ukraine. This would be contingent on Russian forces withdrawing an equivalent distance, with international forces monitoring the line of contact. This proposal would also require Russian withdrawal from areas of limited presence in Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Myokolaiv regions.
• Military Assessments: Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War have estimated that, at current rates of advance, Russian forces could take until August 2027 to fully conquer the rest of Donetsk.

• Current Status: Europe's largest nuclear plant, located in Enerhodar, has been under Russian control since March 2022. Its six reactors are in cold shutdown and are not producing electricity. External power, supplied by Ukraine, is required to prevent a meltdown. Reactivation would require substantial investment, partly due to the destruction of the Kakhovka hydro-electric dam, which previously supplied cooling water.
• Ukrainian Proposal: Ukraine suggests the area surrounding the plant be demilitarized and designated a free economic zone. Kyiv has also counter-proposed joint US-Ukraine management (50-50), with the US determining the destination of half the generated power, viewing a joint Russian-Ukrainian enterprise as unrealistic.
• US Proposal: An early draft of the US-backed plan reportedly suggested splitting the plant's future energy generation between Ukraine and Russia. President Zelensky indicated the US proposed managing the plant as a joint enterprise with Russia and Ukraine.
• Russian Stance: Alexei Likachev, head of Russia's Rosatom nuclear agency, has stated that only Russia can operate the plant and ensure its safety. He has indicated the possibility of Ukraine utilizing electricity generated by the plant within an international cooperation framework.

• Kyiv's Requests: Ukraine has requested NATO-style security guarantees to ensure a response in the event of a future Russian attack and seeks to maintain an 800,000-strong military.
• European Initiatives: The UK and France have been leading discussions to establish a "coalition of the willing," potentially a Multinational Force Ukraine. Diplomatic sources have indicated such a force would offer defense assistance rather than policing a ceasefire line or acting as an impartial peacekeeping entity, and could include a reassurance force deployed within Ukraine.
• Other European Positions: Germany, Italy, and Poland have pledged various forms of defense assistance to Ukraine but have expressed reservations about deploying troops on the ground within the country. The Kremlin has previously stated that any such deployment would be considered an escalation.

Progress on significant points of negotiation is reported to be impacted by limited mutual trust between the parties. When President Trump suggested that President Putin "wants to see Ukraine succeed," President Zelensky responded, "I don't trust Russians and... I don't trust Putin, and he doesn't want success for Ukraine." Russia has accused Ukrainian forces of targeting a Putin residence with drones in the Novgorod region, an allegation for which no evidence was provided, and which Ukraine denies, viewing it as a potential pretext for further Russian strikes.

• Financial Reparations: Ukraine's estimated financial losses are $800 billion. The US proposes a joint investment fund with Europe. Russia holds €210 billion worth of assets in Europe, but Moscow has refused to allow their use for reparations.
• NATO Membership: Ukraine's constitution includes a bid for NATO membership, which Russia rejects. This remains a point of contention, though immediate membership is not anticipated.
• European Union Membership: Ukraine's aspiration for EU membership is another potential issue. Its immediate realization is considered unlikely.

European Concerns and Perceptions

European leaders reportedly expressed concern that a rapid resolution to the conflict, potentially favored by the US, might not lead to lasting peace but rather a temporary pause in Russian actions within Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe. The US National Security Strategy recently characterized European expectations regarding the war's resolution as "unrealistic."

Recent incidents, including unmanned drones disrupting civilian airports in Germany, Denmark, and Belgium, an act of railway sabotage in Poland, and significant cyber-attacks across the continent, have been attributed to Russia. These events have reportedly increased European awareness of the conflict, fostering a perception that Russia seeks to weaken the continent.

Publicly, European leaders have largely commended US efforts. However, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed skepticism regarding some details from the US side while emphasizing the necessity for discussion. Prime Minister Starmer stated that the US President had advanced peace negotiations further than in the preceding four years.