Negotiations regarding a potential peace plan for Ukraine have seen the introduction of a new "updated and revised framework document." Discussions involved Ukrainian negotiators, including Andriy Yermak and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, alongside national security advisers from Germany, France, and the UK.
According to Sergiy Kyslytsya, the new 19-point plan differs significantly from an original draft. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday night that "tremendous progress" had occurred in the talks, with a "couple of things" remaining unresolved, describing the situation as "delicate."
Key Revisions in the New Framework
The previous proposals, which included conditions perceived as favorable to Russia's demands, reportedly faced resistance from Ukraine. These earlier conditions led US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to deny that the initial draft had originated from the Kremlin. The new document is understood to incorporate amendments suggested by European nations, as reported by Reuters. Notable changes include:
- NATO Membership: The automatic veto on future Ukrainian NATO membership has been removed.
- Troop Numbers: A cap on the number of troops for Ukraine's armed forces is no longer present.
- Western Troops: The plan states no Western troops would be permanently deployed to Ukraine, without imposing an absolute ban.
- Territory: Regarding contested territories in the Donbas region, the new proposal indicates no unconditional handover to Russia. Ukraine would aim to recover occupied areas through exclusively diplomatic means, a position Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously accepted.
- Amnesty: A provision for full amnesty for war crimes has been removed.
Security Guarantees and Ukraine's Position
A central element of the revised document is the reference to security guarantees. Several officials, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, have discussed Ukraine potentially receiving Article 5-style protection, which would obligate the US to defend Ukraine in the event of a future invasion by Russia. Ukraine has stated this is a non-negotiable issue for them. Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz has described the new deal as "significantly modified."
US and Russian Involvement
Former President Donald Trump had previously urged Ukraine to agree to a deal rapidly. Following these diplomatic efforts, Trump stated that "something good" might be emerging. The initial plan was reportedly influenced by an earlier visit by President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center observes that President Putin currently exhibits increased military confidence. She attributes this to various factors, including a corruption scandal and a political crisis in Kyiv, challenges in troop mobilization, and recent military gains by Russian forces. Stanovaya characterizes Russia's stance as presenting demands and awaiting Ukraine's acceptance to cease hostilities, otherwise continuing military operations until Ukraine is prepared to agree. Some analysts suggest that Trump's demand for a deal has provided new momentum to peace efforts.