Campi Flegrei Supervolcano Activity Intensifies Near Naples, Italy

POZZUOLI, Italy – The Campi Flegrei volcano, historically associated with an opening to the underworld in Greek and Roman mythology, is exhibiting increased seismic activity. Prehistoric eruptions from this volcano have been documented to block sunlight, lead to global temperature decreases, and cover parts of Europe and Russia with volcanic ash.

Recent Seismic Activity

The area near Naples has experienced heightened ground tremors, with recent earthquakes in March and June being among the strongest observed in centuries. Giovanni Macedonio, director of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Naples, stated that these earthquakes necessitated evacuations, resulting in families being unable to return to damaged homes.

Evacuation Planning and Volcanic Hazards

Italian authorities have designated a "red zone" around Campi Flegrei's eight-mile-wide crater. This zone contains over half a million inhabitants who would require evacuation in the event of an eruption. Macedonio noted the absence of effective countermeasures against pyroclastic flows, which consist of volcanic particles and ash super-heated to approximately 1,472 degrees Fahrenheit, capable of moving at speeds between 30 and 60 miles per hour.

Campi Flegrei is classified as a "national threat" due to its explosive eruption style. Scientists predict such eruptions could generate eruptive columns of dust and ash rising up to 18 miles, spreading by wind and potentially causing structural damage to buildings upon collapse.

Monitoring and Historical Context

The observatory in Naples, overseen by Macedonio, maintains a direct communication line with civil protection headquarters in Rome, tested twice daily. While Mount Vesuvius is a well-known volcano in the region, the less visible Campi Flegrei, or Phlegrean Fields, poses a significant risk due to the hundreds of thousands of people residing within its eight-mile-wide caldera, formed by past eruptions.

Maddalena Desario, a Naples resident, acknowledged living in a seismic area. Pozzuoli, an ancient city within the caldera, features a bay and views of Capri. Geological records indicate that Campi Flegrei's largest eruption approximately 39,000 years ago released 72 cubic miles of molten rock, leading to a global temperature drop and ash deposition across Europe and parts of Russia. Some scientists propose this event may have contributed to the decline of Neanderthal populations.

Current Monitoring and Scientific Research

While experts do not anticipate an eruption on the scale of ancient events, a modern eruption could impact millions and disrupt air travel across Europe and beyond. Macedonio's team continuously monitors the volcano's seismic activity. In September, an earthquake was detected within Campi Flegrei. Last year, the volcano was responsible for approximately 2,500 earthquakes in a single month. The tremors' magnitude is increasing, with a 4.6-magnitude earthquake in June causing wall cracks and resident evacuations.

This seismic activity is accompanied by bradyseism, a phenomenon involving the slow uplift and subsidence of the ground. The old port in Pozzuoli demonstrates this with boats now situated on elevated land, and ancient Roman columns displaying mollusk fossils indicating past submergence. Before a major eruption around 15,000 years ago, the ground rose about 85 feet. Since 2005, the ground has risen by 4.6 feet, and the uplift rate is accelerating.

Warner Marzocchi, a professor of geophysics and natural risk at the University of Naples, Federico II, stated that human control over these natural processes is limited. He emphasized that such volcanic systems experience phases of unrest and that understanding the drivers of this activity is the primary scientific challenge. Marzocchi's team, in collaboration with Stanford University and the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, employs artificial intelligence to enhance monitoring. This technology has expanded the recorded seismicity in Campi Flegrei from 12,000 to over 54,000 earthquakes in the last three years, providing more accurate data for assessing future quake magnitudes.

Outlook and Community Response

The data suggest that current tremors are primarily caused by gases pushing superheated water through the earth rather than rising magma, leading scientists to cautiously suggest an eruption is not immediately imminent. However, Marzocchi reiterated that the eruption risk remains "not zero" and vigilance is essential.

In the 1970s and 1980s, authorities mandated the relocation of tens of thousands of residents from Rione Terra, Pozzuoli's historic district, due to significant ground uplift from bradyseism. Police and military enforced these evacuations, and the area's historic buildings remain largely uninhabited. Despite these past events, communities across Pozzuoli and the Campi Flegrei region continue to reside there, accustomed to the volcano's activity.